• ISSN 1673-5722
  • CN 11-5429/P

“情景-应对”型理论体系的发展及其在地震灾害应急管理中的应用探讨

陈波 王芳 肖本夫

陈波,王芳,肖本夫,2021. “情景-应对”型理论体系的发展及其在地震灾害应急管理中的应用探讨. 震灾防御技术,16(4):605−616. doi:10.11899/zzfy20210401. doi: 10.11899/zzfy20210401
引用本文: 陈波,王芳,肖本夫,2021. “情景-应对”型理论体系的发展及其在地震灾害应急管理中的应用探讨. 震灾防御技术,16(4):605−616. doi:10.11899/zzfy20210401. doi: 10.11899/zzfy20210401
Chen Bo, Wang Fang, Xiao Benfu. The Development of “Scenario-response” Theoretical System and Its Application in Earthquake Disaster Emergency Management[J]. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention, 2021, 16(4): 605-616. doi: 10.11899/zzfy20210401
Citation: Chen Bo, Wang Fang, Xiao Benfu. The Development of “Scenario-response” Theoretical System and Its Application in Earthquake Disaster Emergency Management[J]. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention, 2021, 16(4): 605-616. doi: 10.11899/zzfy20210401

“情景-应对”型理论体系的发展及其在地震灾害应急管理中的应用探讨

doi: 10.11899/zzfy20210401
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目 (2019YFC1509402);中国地震局地球物理研究所基本科研业务费专项(DQJB19A0132)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    陈波,男,生于1987年。博士,副研究员。主要从事地震工程学与城市减灾技术研究工作。E-mail:chenbo@cea-igp.ac.cn

The Development of “Scenario-response” Theoretical System and Its Application in Earthquake Disaster Emergency Management

  • 摘要: “情景-应对”型理论体系基于事件静、动态情景分析生成应急决策方案,已成为重大突发事件应急决策的基本范式。近年来,“情景-应对”研究理论的迅速发展极大地拓宽了其应用范围,逐渐被引入地震应急中,在一定程度上能够弥补传统“预测-应对”模式的不足,为震后高效行动及充分应对提供有效支撑。本文从情景识别、情景推演及应对处置方案生成等方面详细介绍了“情景-应对”理论体系发展中涉及的关键技术,阐述了其在地震灾害应急管理中的应用。通过对已有研究的回顾,分析讨论了该领域的最新进展及需进一步解决的问题。
  • 图  1  突发事件情景演化的动态贝叶斯网络

    Figure  1.  Dynamic Bayesian network for the scenario evolution of emergent events

    图  2  突发事件应急决策方案生成基本流程

    Figure  2.  Flow chart of generating emergency decision plan for emergency events

    图  3  地震灾害情景链

    Figure  3.  Earthquake disaster scenario chains

    图  4  生命线应急任务分解结构

    Figure  4.  Breakdown structure for the lifeline emergency task

    表  1  部分情景条件概率取值

    Table  1.   Condition probabilities of some scenarios

    情景名称取值发生概率
    建筑物倒塌极少倒塌0.350 8
    大半倒塌0.223 4
    绝大多数倒塌0.425 7
    通信中断没有中断0
    中断1
    交通中断没有中断0
    中断1
    供水、供电、供气设施破坏设施破坏但短时间能恢复0.331 8
    瘫痪0.668 2
    危险品泄漏没有泄漏0.662 6
    泄漏0.337 4
    火灾极少(10次以下)0.786 1
    次数多/发生大规模火灾0.213 9
    人员死亡在可接受死亡人数范围内0.389 7
    大于可接受死亡人数0.610 3
    生活物资缺乏程度不缺乏0.129 7
    缺乏0.870 3
    社会大众恐慌程度0
    恐慌严重1
    社会公共安全事件严重程度0.456 0
    哄抢、抢劫等0.544 0
    疫情种类无疫情或传染性小0.576 5
    死亡率高的传染性疾病0.423 5
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2021-10-18
  • 刊出日期:  2021-12-31

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