A Rapid Assessment Framework for Earthquake Disasters Based on Multi-Source Data Fusion: A Case Study of the 2025 Dingri MS6.8 Earthquake in Xizang
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摘要: 地震应急救援的时效性与精准性直接关系到生命救援成功率与灾害损失控制效能。围绕震后0~10小时黄金救援期的核心决策需求,本文以2025年1月7日西藏定日MS6.8地震为典型案例,聚焦于“建筑物损毁程度评估与重点救援区域划定”这一核心评估客体,系统性对比了多源异构数据在震害快速评估中的适用性与性能差异。本文分析了地震烈度衰减模型、仪器地震烈度速报、手机人口热力数据及光学遥感影像解译四类技术的时效性-精准性权衡特征,并在此基础上提出了“分阶段递进式”多模态协同评估框架。结果表明,多源数据协同融合后的综合评估结果在空间吻合度、烈度识别准确率及重点救援区命中率3个维度上均优于任一单一方法,验证了协同框架的有效性。本文明确了各类技术在震后快速评估过程中的适用边界与前提条件,为提升黄金救援期决策的科学性与救援效能提供了技术参考。
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Abstract: The timeliness and accuracy of earthquake emergency response are directly critical to the success rate of life rescue and the effectiveness of disaster loss control. Focusing on the core decision-making needs during the golden rescue window of 0–10 hours after an earthquake, this paper takes the MS 6.8 earthquake that struck Dingri, Xizang, China, on 7 January 2025 as a typical case. It concentrates on the central assessment target—assessment of building damage severity and delineation of priority rescue areas—and systematically compares the applicability and performance differences of multi‑source heterogeneous data in rapid earthquake damage assessment. The study analyses the timeliness‑accuracy trade‑off characteristics of four types of techniques: seismic intensity attenuation models, instrumental intensity rapid reporting, mobile‑phone‑based population heatmap data, and interpretation of optical remote sensing imagery. On this basis, a "phased progressive" multi‑modal collaborative assessment framework is proposed. The results show that the comprehensive assessment outcomes derived from synergistic multi‑source data fusion outperform any single method in terms of spatial consistency, intensity identification accuracy, and hit rate of priority rescue areas, thereby validating the effectiveness of the collaborative framework. This study clarifies the applicability boundaries and prerequisites of various techniques in the post‑earthquake rapid assessment process, providing a technical reference for improving the scientific basis of decision‑making and the efficiency of rescue operations during the golden rescue period. -
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