Research on the Technical Approach and Operational Tracking Indicators for Monitoring Movement Changes of Active Tectonic Blocks
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摘要: 活动地块理论是解析中国大陆强震孕育与发生机制的核心理论框架，中国大陆几乎所有8级以上强震和超过80%的7级以上强震均发生在活动地块边界带，构建标准化、业务化的地块运动动态监测体系对区域地震危险性研判具有关键意义。本文融合大地测量与测震学多源数据，构建“块—带—源”三级递进、场源配套的监测与判定体系，系统制定各级监测的量化技术指标与标准化判定流程。以中国大陆西部地区为实证区，开展活动地块相对运动、边界带分段变形、强震危险源动态跟踪的业务化监测应用，揭示了研究区“西强东弱、南强北弱”的地块运动时空格局，识别出边界带变形异常区段与断层闭锁、应力异常段落；基于三级判定策略，圈定南天山断裂西段、北天山断裂中段等7条发震紧迫程度高的活动断裂。结果表明，“块—带—源”监测体系可完整刻画“动力源—地块运动—边界带变形—震源积累”的全链条动力加载过程，实现强震危险源的定量化、动态化跟踪，有效支撑区域地震危险性业务化研判。本文同时指出观测网络覆盖不均、监测方法精度待提升等短板，展望了空天地一体化全域监测与高精度动态判定的发展路径。Abstract: The theory of active tectonic blocks is the core theoretical framework for understanding the mechanism of strong earthquakes' occurrence and development in the Chinese mainland. Nearly all M≥ 8 and more than 80% of M≥7 strong earthquakes in the Chinese mainland occurred along the boundaries of active tectonic blocks. The establishment of a standardized and operational dynamic monitoring system for block movement is of crucial significance for the precise assessment of regional seismic hazard. This paper integrates multi-source data from geodesy and seismology to create a three-level progressive and field-source-matched monitoring system for active tectonic block movement and a comprehensive judgment system for the urgency of earthquake occurrence. It systematically formulates quantitative technical indicators and standardized judgment procedures for monitoring at all levels. Taking the western region of the Chinese mainland as the empirical area, it conducts operational monitoring applications of relative block movement, segmented deformation of boundary zones, and dynamic tracking of strong earthquake sources, revealing the spatio-temporal pattern of "strong in the west and weak in the east, strong in the south and weak in the north" in the study area, and identifying abnormal deformation sections and locked and stress-anomalous segments in the boundary zones. Based on the three-level judgment strategy, seven active faults with high urgency of earthquake occurrence, such as the western section of the South Tianshan Fault and the middle section of the North Tianshan Fault, are delineated. The results show that the "block-belt-source" monitoring system can comprehensively depict the full-chain dynamic loading process from "dynamic source - block movement - boundary zone deformation - seismic source accumulation", achieve quantitative and dynamic tracking of strong earthquake sources, and effectively support the operational assessment of regional seismic hazard. This paper also points out the shortcomings such as uneven coverage of the observation network and the need to improve the accuracy of monitoring methods, and looks forward to the development path of all-domain monitoring and high-precision dynamic judgment through the integration of space, air, and ground.
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图 1 块-带-源三级监测技术思路图
Figure 1. Diagram of the Block-Zone-Source three-level monitoring technology approach
图 3 活动地块边界带分段活动特征跟踪技术方案
Figure 3. Technical solution for tracking segmented activity characteristics of active block boundary zones
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