Conceptual Design of the Earthquake Disaster-Chain Observation Experimental Platform in the China Seismic Experimental Site: An Integrated Observation–Experiment–Simulation–Early Warning Framework
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摘要: 地震灾害链（指地震触发并串联多种次生灾害的链式致灾过程）是导致重特大地震灾害损失显著放大的主要致灾形态，具有多灾种耦合、跨圈层作用和跨尺度演化等典型特征。受限于以单一灾害为核心的研究范式与监测技术体系，当前对地震灾害链孕育环境、链生机理及放大效应的系统认知仍显不足，难以有效支撑风险评估与防御决策。为突破上述瓶颈，本文面向地震灾害链重大科学问题，构思并设计了地震灾害链观测实验平台，并将其纳入“十四五”国家重大科技基础设施“中国地震科学实验场”总体布局，作为重要组成部分获批建设。该平台选取灾害链高风险区域为典型实验区，聚焦“地震-滑坡-堵江-溃决洪水”、“地震与降雨复合崩塌、滑坡、山洪、泥石流”和“地震-冰崩”等典型灾害链类型，以及地震-近地表岩体强度弱化等关键链生物理过程，构建野外多尺度综合观测、物理模拟实验与数值模拟及综合应用相融合的“观测—实验—模拟—预警”一体化研究体系。该平台通过多尺度、多参量（地震动、形变、水文气象等）、多要素与多灾种协同设计，为揭示地震灾害链演化机制、发展风险评估与监测预警技术提供实验基础，并有望在地震灾害防御技术体系完善与综合风险治理中发挥重要作用。Abstract: Earthquake disaster chains—referring to cascading hazard processes in which an earthquake triggers and links multiple secondary disasters—represent the dominant mechanism responsible for the significant amplification of losses in major and catastrophic seismic events. Such chains are characterized by multi-hazard coupling, cross-sphere interactions (lithosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, and atmosphere), and cross-scale evolution. Constrained by a traditional research paradigm centered on single hazards and by monitoring systems designed for isolated events, current understanding of the formation environment, chain-generation mechanisms, and amplification effects of earthquake disaster chains remains insufficient. This limitation hinders effective support for risk assessment and disaster prevention decision-making. To address these challenges, this study conceptualizes and designs an observational experimental platform for earthquake disaster chains, which has been incorporated into the overall framework of the “China Seismic Experimental Site”, a national major science and technology infrastructure under the 14th Five-Year Plan, and officially approved for construction as a key component. The platform selects high-risk regions of disaster chains as typical experimental sites. It focuses on typical cascading scenarios, including “earthquake–landslide–river blockage–outburst flood,” “earthquake–rainfall compound events leading to collapses, landslides, flash floods, and debris flows,” and “earthquake–ice avalanche” chains, as well as critical physical processes such as near-surface rock mass strength degradation induced by seismic shaking. The platform establishes an integrated research framework that combines multi-scale field observations, physical simulation experiments, numerical modeling, and integrated applications within a unified “observation–experiment–simulation–early warning” system. Through coordinated multi-scale, multi-parameter (e.g., ground motion, deformation, hydrometeorological variables), multi-element, and multi-hazard design, the platform aims to provide an experimental foundation for revealing the evolutionary mechanisms of earthquake disaster chains and for advancing risk assessment and monitoring–early warning technologies. It is expected to play a significant role in strengthening seismic disaster prevention systems and promoting comprehensive risk governance.
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图 1 地震灾害链观测实验平台功能结构图
Figure 1. Functional architecture of the earthquake disaster-chain observation experimental platform
图 2 地震灾害链野外观测系统斜坡体观测台阵站点布局示意图
Figure 2. Schematic layout of slope observation array stations in the earthquake disaster-chain field observation system
图 3 地震灾害链野外观测系统台阵布局示意图
Figure 3. Schematic layout of observation arrays in the earthquake disaster-chain field observation system
图 4 地震灾害链物理实验系统示意图
Figure 4. Schematic diagram of the physical experimental system for earthquake disaster chains
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