摘要:
针对局部区域强震台站稀疏分布导致的数据驱动类场地放大效应预测模型建立困难,本研究提出了一种基于少数台站多次地震事件观测数据构建局部场地效应预测模型的方法。通过场地效应评价的标准谱比法(Surface/Basement Spectral Ratio,SBSR)和广义反演法(Generalized Inversion Technique,GIT)确定场地放大指标,结合卷积神经网络(Convolutional Neural Networks,CNN)和长短时记忆网络(Long Short-term Memory Networks,LSTM),构建了四类智能预测模型(CNN-SBSR、CNN-GIT、LSTM-SBSR和LSTM-GIT)。其中SBSR类模型选取了震源参数(震级、震中距、震源深度)、场地参数(剪切波速、基岩记录加速度峰值)及空间坐标(经纬度)等为输入参数,而GIT类模型则依赖场地特性和空间信息等相关参数。与传统场地预测方法的区别在于所建立的预测模型可直接学习单次地震事件的观测数据,而非基于台站平均谱比曲线进行回归,从而有效解决了传统方法难以外推至无台站区域的局限性。基于所提出的方法利用新西兰下哈特盆地5个台站数据所构建预测模型的交叉验证结果表明:LSTM类模型凭借其优异的时序特征提取能力展现出更高的预测精度,而CNN模型在参数较少时表现出更好的稳健性。GIT方法因强化场地参数作用,整体性能优于SBSR方法。其中,LSTM-GIT组合模型表现最优。本研究提出的技术方案,为稀疏台站区域的场地放大预测提供了兼具精度与可靠性的解决方法。
Abstract:
Aiming at the difficulty of building a data-driven class of site amplification effect prediction model due to the sparse distribution of strong earthquake stations in a local region, this study proposes a method of constructing a local site effect prediction model based on the observation data of multiple seismic events from a few stations. The site amplification index is determined by the Surface/Basement Spectral Ratio (SBSR) and the Generalized Inversion Technique (GIT) for site effect evaluation. It is combined with the Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and the Generalized Inversion Technique (GIT). Networks (CNN) and Long Short-term Memory Networks (LSTM), four classes of intelligent prediction models (CNN-SBSR, CNN-GIT, LSTM-SBSRand LSTM-GIT) were constructed. Among them, the SBSR class models selected the source parameters (magnitude, epicenter distance, and epicenter depth), site parameters (shear wave velocity, peak bedrock recorded acceleration), and spatial coordinates (latitude and longitude) as input parameters, while the GIT class models relied on the relevant parameters such as site characteristics and spatial information. The difference with the traditional site prediction method is that the established prediction model can directly learn the observation data of a single seismic event instead of regressing based on the station-averaged spectral ratio curves, which effectively solves the limitation of the traditional method that is difficult to be extrapolated to the station-free region. The cross-validation results of the prediction models constructed based on the proposed method using data from five stations in the Lower Hart Basin, New Zealand, show that the LSTM-like model exhibits higher prediction accuracy by its excellent time-series feature extraction capability, while the CNN model shows better robustness with fewer parameters, and the GIT method outperforms the SBSR method due to the strengthened role of the site parameters. Among them, the combined LSTM-GIT model performs optimally. The technical solution proposed in this study provides a solution with both accuracy and reliability for site amplification prediction in sparse station areas.