基于夜间灯光数据的地震损害和经济恢复评估

李峰; 廖顺宝; 景胜强; 付行健

doi:10.11899/zzfy20250067

基于夜间灯光数据的地震损害和经济恢复评估

doi: 10.11899/zzfy20250067

李峰^{1, 2,},
廖顺宝^{1, 2},
景胜强^{1, 2},
付行健^{1, 2}

1.
应急管理大学, 防灾减灾工程学院学院, 河北三河 065201
2.
河北省地震灾害防御与风险评价重点实验室, 河北三河 065201

基金项目: 中央高校基本科研业务费研究生科技创新基金项目（ZY20260311）；河北省地震灾害防御与风险评价重点实验室开放基金资助项目（FZ247105）；2025年度廊坊市科技局科学研究与发展计划项目（2025013092）

详细信息

作者简介:
李峰，男，生于1979年。博士后，教授，硕士生导师。主要从事灾害遥感应用方面的工作。E-mail：lif1223@aliyun.com

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2025-04-08
- 录用日期: 2025-06-13
- 修回日期: 2025-05-13
- 网络出版日期: 2026-04-30

Assessment on Earthquake Damage and Economic Recovery Based on Nighttime Light Data

Li Feng^{1, 2
,},
Liao Shunbao^{1, 2},
Jing Shengqiang^{1, 2},
Fu Xingjian^{1, 2}

1.
School of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering, University of Emergency Management, Sanhe 065201, Hebei, China
2.
Hebei Key Laboratory of Earthquake Disaster Prevention and Risk Assessment, Sanhe 065201, Hebei, China

摘要

摘要: 2023年2月6日，土耳其连续发生2次强震，哈塔伊省人员伤亡惨重，基础设施大量损毁。为快速全面评估地震损害与重建情况，利用震前月度和震后每日夜间灯光（NTL）数据变化比率识别哈塔伊省地震损害度。通过月度NTL数据计算平均灯光强度（ALI），借助数据平滑与季节分解技术去除ALI时间序列中的随机噪声和季节波动。基于地震前后的回归模型，搭建震后经济恢复评估框架。结果表明，地震损害的整体精度达到77.28%，可用于地震损害的评估；构建的回归模型拟合度较高，适用于震后区域经济恢复的评估。在县级层面，灾后埃尔津、库姆卢和安塔基亚县经济已经恢复，多尔蒂约尔和萨曼达县的经济恢复困难，其余7个县的经济预计2026年3月前恢复。整体上，哈塔伊省经济增长缓慢，全面恢复时间尚无法确定。
- 夜间灯光 /
- 土耳其地震 /
- 损坏程度 /
- 震后经济恢复
Abstract: On February 6, 2023, two strong earthquakes struck Turkey, causing significant casualties and extensive damage to infrastructure in Hatay Province. To quickly and comprehensively assess earthquake damage and reconstruction, this study utilized the change ratio in pre-earthquake monthly and post-earthquake daily nighttime light (NTL) data to identify earthquake damage in Hatay Province. The average lighting index (ALI) was calculated using monthly NTL data, with random noise and seasonal fluctuations removed from the ALI time series through data smoothing and seasonal decomposition techniques. A post-earthquake economic recovery assessment framework was constructed based on pre- and post-earthquake regression models. The results show that the overall accuracy of earthquake damage assessment is 77.28%, making it suitable for evaluating earthquake damage. The constructed regression model has a high fit, making it useful for assessing post-earthquake regional economic recovery. At the county level, the economies of Erzin, Kumlu, and Antakya have recovered post-disaster, while Dortyol and Samandag are facing difficulties in economic recovery. The economies of the remaining seven counties are expected to recover by March 2026. Overall, the economic growth in Hatay Province is slow, and the timeline for complete recovery remains uncertain.
- Nighttime light /
- Turkey earthquake /
- Damage degree /
- Post-earthquake economic recovery
注释:

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HTML全文

图 1 土耳其哈塔伊省的地震烈度图

Figure 1. Seismic intensity map of Hatay Province, Turkey

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 震后经济复苏框架

Figure 2. Post-earthquake economic recovery framework

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 NPP-VIIRS NTL数据绘制的震后损坏程度和损坏面积图

Figure 3. Maps of damaged level and damaged area after the earthquake using NPP-VIIRS NTL data

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 哈塔伊省震后经济恢复框架

Figure 4. Post-earthquake economic recovery framework in Hatay Province

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 哈塔伊省县级震后经济恢复框架

Figure 5. Post-earthquake economic recovery framework for the counties of Hatay Province

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 减少的NPP-VIIRS NTL与3种受损建筑物面积以及受损建筑物总数之间的相关性的相关性

Figure 6. Correlation between the reduced SRNPP-VIIRS NTL and the areas of three types of damaged buildings, as well as the total number of damaged buildings

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 7 阿尔蒂诺祖2020年4月～11月的ALI时间序列数据、SMA平滑值、STC和SAF

Figure 7. Time series data for ALI, SMA-smoothed values, STC, and SAF in the Altinozu, covering the period from April 2020 to November 2024

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 基于NTL数据的地震损坏精度评估

Table 1. Accuracy assessment of earthquake damage based on NTL data

参考数据源	类别	CE/%	OE/%	OA/%	KC
EOS	损害	26.66	18.43	77.28	0.55
EOS	无损害	18.35	26.56	77.28	0.55

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 地震前后回归模型的统计检验

Table 2. Statistical test of regression models before and after the earthquake

县名	震前			县名	震后
县名	R²	F	p	县名	R²	F	p
哈塔伊	0.94	522.86	0.00	哈塔伊	0.85	117.34	0.00
阿尔蒂诺祖	0.93	455.05	0.00	阿尔蒂诺祖	0.95	114.41	0.00
贝伦	0.91	341.40	0.00	贝伦	0.86	36.56	0.00
多尔蒂约尔	0.92	375.68	0.00	多尔蒂约尔	0.76	18.73	0.00
埃尔津	0.74	91.19	0.00	埃尔津	0.70	13.72	0.00
哈萨	0.98	1633.23	0.00	哈萨	0.96	128.72	0.00
伊斯肯德伦	0.97	957.90	0.00	伊斯肯德伦	0.81	26.17	0.00
基里克汉	0.98	1923.83	0.00	基里克汉	0.91	60.62	0.00
库姆卢	0.89	271.01	0.00	库姆卢	0.91	60.38	0.00
安塔基亚	0.87	209.03	0.00	安塔基亚	0.94	318.92	0.00
雷伊汉勒	0.95	559.58	0.00	雷伊汉勒	0.94	94.06	0.00
萨曼达	0.97	930.72	0.00	萨曼达	0.55	11.50	0.00
亚伊拉达吉	0.95	631.81	0.00	亚伊拉达吉	0.94	89.17	0.00

下载: 导出CSV

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