基于记录回归的适用于新疆中小震级的地震动预测方程

焦峰; 刘也; 任叶飞; 王宏伟; 温瑞智

doi:10.11899/zzfy20250040

基于记录回归的适用于新疆中小震级的地震动预测方程

doi: 10.11899/zzfy20250040

焦峰^{1, 2,},
刘也^{1, 2, ,},
任叶飞^{1, 2},
王宏伟^{1, 2},
温瑞智^{1, 2}

1.
中国地震局工程力学研究所地震工程与工程振动重点实验室, 哈尔滨 150080
2.
地震灾害防治应急管理部重点实验室, 哈尔滨 150080

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFE0102900); 国家自然科学基金(U2239252、52478567)

详细信息

作者简介:
焦峰，男，出生1999年。硕士。主要从事工程地震相关研究。 E-mail：961215392@qq.com

通讯作者:
刘也，男，生于1995年。助理研究员。主要从事工程地震相关研究。 E-mail：liuye@iem.ac.cn

中图分类号: P315.7
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2025-03-13
- 录用日期: 2025-05-28
- 修回日期: 2025-05-23
- 网络出版日期: 2026-04-22

Regression-Based Ground Motion Prediction Equation for Small-to-Moderate Earthquakes in Xinjiang

Jiao Feng^{1, 2
,},
Liu Ye^{1, 2
, ,},
Ren Yefei^{1, 2},
Wang Hongwei^{1, 2},
Wen Ruizhi^{1, 2}

1.
Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration, Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, Harbin 150080, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Earthquake Disaster Mitigation, Ministry of Emergency Management, Harbin150080, China

摘要

摘要: 目前已有一些研究建立了适用于我国不同地区的地震动预测方程，但针对新疆地区，鲜有利用本地强震动观测数据直接回归的地震动预测方程。随着国家强震动观测台网系统的建设，强震动数据不断丰富，通过对我国强震动数据库Flatfile中新疆地区的强震动数据进行两步法回归得出适用于新疆地区中小震级的地震动预测方程。为了与GB 18306-2015《中国地震动参数区划图》衔接，建立了新疆地区平均轴烈度预测方程作为参考，通过转换法进一步给出了新疆地区长轴与短轴的地震动预测方程。与“区评大纲”中新疆地区长短轴的地震动预测方程相比，在远场（R_epi=200 km），本文的伪加速度反应谱值整体略高，在近场（R_epi=20 km），周期大于0.3 s时伪加速度反应谱略低，在中等距离条件下（R_epi=50和100 km），二者基本吻合。
- 参数回归 /
- 地震动预测方程 /
- 区划图 /
- 烈度转换法 /
- 强震动数据 /
- 中小震级
Abstract: Currently, ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) applicable to different regions of China have been established by several studies. However, for the Xinjiang region, few GMPEs have been directly regressed using local strong ground motion observation data. With the construction of the national strong ground motion observation network system and the continuous enrichment of strong ground motion data, this paper derives the GMPEs suitable for small to moderate earthquakes in the Xinjiang region by performing a two-step regression on strong ground motion data from the Xinjiang region in China's strong ground motion database Flatfile. To align with the GB 18306-2015 《Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zonation Map of China》, this paper establishes an average axial intensity prediction equation for the Xinjiang region as a reference, and further provides the GMPEs for the major and minor axes of the Xinjiang region through a transform method. Compared with the GMPEs for the major and minor axes in the Xinjiang region as presented in the 'Regional Seismic Safety Evaluation Guidelines', the pseudo-acceleration response spectral values in this paper are slightly higher in the far-field (R_epi=200 km), slightly lower in the near-field (R_epi =20 km) for periods greater than 0.3 S, and basically consistent under medium distance conditions (R_epi =50 and 100 km)."
- Parametric regression /
- Ground motion prediction equation /
- Seismic hazard map /
- Transform method /
- Strong ground motion data /
- Small-to-moderate earthquakes

HTML全文

图 1 地震事件、记录台站的空间分布以及强震动记录的震级-距离分布

Figure 1. Spatial distribution of earthquake events, recording stations, and the magnitude-distance distribution of strong ground motion records

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 调整后PGA和PSA（T=0.2、1、4 s）的震级项回归结果

Figure 2. The adjusted regression results of the magnitude terms for PGA and SA （T=0.2, 1, 4 s）

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图 3 不同震级PGA与PSA（T=0.2、1、4 s）的预测值及观测值

Figure 3. Predicted and observed PGA and PSA（T=0.2, 1,4 s） values for different magnitudes

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图 4 PSA的预测值随周期的变化

Figure 4. Variation of predicted PSA values with period

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图 5 PGA和PSA（T=0.2、1 、4 s）的事件间残差

Figure 5. Inter-event residuals for PGA and PSA （T=0.2, 1, 4 s）

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 PGA和PSA （T=0.2 、1 、 4 s）的事件内残差

Figure 6. Intra-event residuals for PGA and PSA（T=0.2, 1, 4 s）

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图 7 本文地震动预测方程的总标准差、事件间残差和事件内残差

Figure 7. Total, intra, and inter-event standard deviations of this paper.

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图 8 新疆地区长轴、短轴以及数据回归的PSA预测值随周期变化

Figure 8. Variation of predicted PSA with period for the major axis, minor axis, and data regression

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图 9 新疆长短轴PSA/SA对比

Figure 9. Comparison of major and minor axis PSA/SA in Xinjiang

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表 1 场地调整系数

Table 1. Site Adjustment Coefficient

T/s		f_CL-I	f_CL-II	f_CL-III
PGA		−0.199	0.138	0.173
PSA	0.03	−0.184	0.129	0.156
	0.05	−0.170	0.121	0.141
	0.075	−0.158	0.124	0.168
	0.1	−0.185	0.124	0.197
	0.15	−0.233	0.112	0.208
	0.2	−0.283	0.091	0.210
	0.25	−0.318	0.068	0.229
	0.3	−0.322	0.024	0.283
	0.4	−0.330	−0.016	0.359
	0.5	−0.323	−0.051	0.442
	0.75	−0.341	−0.068	0.499
	1	−0.321	−0.061	0.473
	1.5	−0.313	−0.031	0.404
	2	−0.249	0.005	0.312
	3	−0.236	0.007	0.259
	4	−0.220	−0.027	0.254
	5	−0.242	−0.047	0.253
	6	−0.248	−0.053	0.255

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 新疆地区基岩地震动预测方程的回归系数

Table 2. Regression coefficients of the rock ground motion prediction equation for the Xinjiang region

T/s		震级项				距离项			标准差
T/s		A₁	B₁	A₂	B₂	C	D	E	σ
PGA		1.623	0.541	2.083	0.470	−1.795	1.649	0.396	0.386
PSA	0.03	1.798	0.547	2.313	0.467	−1.878	1.649	0.396	0.402
	0.05	2.012	0.536	2.522	0.457	−1.905	1.649	0.396	0.400
	0.075	2.100	0.535	2.585	0.460	−1.903	1.649	0.396	0.422
	0.1	2.169	0.537	2.719	0.452	−1.910	1.649	0.396	0.446
	0.15	2.073	0.545	2.488	0.481	−1.866	1.649	0.396	0.412
	0.2	1.879	0.561	2.245	0.504	−1.813	1.649	0.396	0.364
	0.25	1.596	0.588	2.116	0.508	−1.766	1.649	0.396	0.361
	0.3	1.287	0.616	1.951	0.513	−1.718	1.649	0.396	0.356
	0.4	0.808	0.653	1.585	0.533	−1.633	1.649	0.396	0.375
	0.5	0.336	0.694	1.218	0.558	−1.575	1.649	0.396	0.379
	0.75	−0.238	0.753	0.846	0.586	−1.540	1.649	0.396	0.354
	1	−0.858	0.809	0.488	0.601	−1.482	1.649	0.396	0.346
	1.5	−1.490	0.876	−0.046	0.653	−1.470	1.649	0.396	0.349
	2	−2.008	0.943	−0.332	0.685	−1.516	1.649	0.396	0.348
	3	−2.452	0.999	−0.922	0.763	−1.572	1.649	0.396	0.379
	4	−2.769	1.027	−1.395	0.815	−1.606	1.649	0.396	0.394
	5	−3.032	1.060	−1.719	0.858	−1.684	1.649	0.396	0.393
	6	−3.189	1.040	−2.312	0.905	−1.649	1.649	0.396	0.392

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 新疆地区地震烈度衰减系数

Table 3. Seismic intensity attenuation coefficients for the Xinjiang region

地区	轴向	C₁	C₂	C₃	R₀
新疆	长轴	5.6018	1.4347	−4.4899	25
	短轴	3.6113	1.4347	−3.8477	13
	平均轴	4.5319	1.4410	−4.1597	18

下载: 导出CSV

表 4 新疆地区长轴基岩地震动预测模型系数

Table 4. Coefficients of the rock ground motion prediction model for the major axis in the Xinjiang region

T/s		震级项				距离项			标准差
T/s		A₁	B₁	A₂	B₂	C	D	E	σ
PGA		1.951	0.534	2.335	0.475	−1.869	2.213	0.396	0.386
PSA	0.03	2.142	0.550	2.658	0.471	−1.984	2.213	0.396	0.402
	0.05	2.361	0.540	2.839	0.466	−2.013	2.213	0.396	0.400
	0.075	2.449	0.539	2.910	0.468	−2.011	2.213	0.396	0.422
	0.1	2.519	0.540	2.935	0.476	−2.018	2.213	0.396	0.446
	0.15	2.415	0.548	2.815	0.487	−1.971	2.213	0.396	0.412
	0.2	2.211	0.564	2.648	0.497	−1.915	2.213	0.396	0.364
	0.25	1.920	0.591	2.431	0.513	−1.866	2.213	0.396	0.361
	0.3	1.602	0.619	2.194	0.528	−1.816	2.213	0.396	0.356
	0.4	1.107	0.656	1.842	0.543	−1.726	2.213	0.396	0.375
	0.5	0.625	0.697	1.515	0.560	−1.664	2.213	0.396	0.379
	0.75	0.044	0.756	1.141	0.588	−1.627	2.213	0.396	0.354
	1	−0.586	0.811	0.675	0.617	−1.565	2.213	0.396	0.346
	1.5	−1.220	0.878	0.211	0.658	−1.553	2.213	0.396	0.349
	2	−1.730	0.946	−0.162	0.705	−1.602	2.213	0.396	0.348
	3	−2.163	1.002	−0.571	0.757	−1.661	2.213	0.396	0.379
	4	−2.474	1.030	−1.035	0.809	−1.696	2.213	0.396	0.394
	5	−2.723	1.064	−1.430	0.865	−1.779	2.213	0.396	0.393
	6	−2.886	1.044	−2.032	0.912	−1.742	2.213	0.396	0.392

下载: 导出CSV

表 5 新疆地区短轴基岩地震动预测模型系数

Table 5. Coefficients of the rock ground motion prediction model for the minor axis in the Xinjiang region

T/s		震级项				距离项			标准差
T/s		A₁	B₁	A₂	B₂	C	D	E	σ
PGA		1.286	0.490	1.383	0.475	−1.553	0.931	0.446	0.386
PSA	0.03	1.432	0.541	1.901	0.469	−1.751	0.931	0.446	0.402
	0.05	1.641	0.530	2.072	0.464	−1.777	0.931	0.446	0.400
	0.075	1.730	0.530	2.143	0.466	−1.774	0.931	0.446	0.422
	0.1	1.797	0.531	2.166	0.474	−1.781	0.931	0.446	0.446
	0.15	1.710	0.539	2.063	0.485	−1.740	0.931	0.446	0.412
	0.2	1.525	0.556	1.917	0.495	−1.690	0.931	0.446	0.364
	0.25	1.252	0.583	1.720	0.511	−1.647	0.931	0.446	0.361
	0.3	0.952	0.611	1.501	0.526	−1.602	0.931	0.446	0.356
	0.4	0.490	0.648	1.184	0.541	−1.523	0.931	0.446	0.375
	0.5	0.029	0.689	0.880	0.558	−1.468	0.931	0.446	0.379
	0.75	−0.538	0.749	0.520	0.586	−1.436	0.931	0.446	0.354
	1	−1.146	0.804	0.078	0.616	−1.381	0.931	0.446	0.346
	1.5	−1.776	0.871	−0.382	0.657	−1.371	0.931	0.446	0.349
	2	−2.303	0.938	−0.773	0.703	−1.413	0.931	0.446	0.348
	3	−2.758	0.994	−1.205	0.755	−1.466	0.931	0.446	0.379
	4	−3.081	1.022	−1.682	0.807	−1.497	0.931	0.446	0.394
	5	−3.360	1.056	−2.109	0.863	−1.570	0.931	0.446	0.393
	6	−3.510	1.036	−2.697	0.910	−1.538	0.931	0.446	0.392

下载: 导出CSV

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