基于强震场景模拟的京津冀区域医疗系统协同救援研究

郭小东; 李圣楠; 王志涛

doi:10.11899/zzfy20240053

基于强震场景模拟的京津冀区域医疗系统协同救援研究以唐山市为例

doi: 10.11899/zzfy20240053

北京工业大学, 建筑与城市规划学院, 北京 100124

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(52278472)；北京市自然科学基金项目（8232004）

详细信息

作者简介:
郭小东，男，生于1977年。教授，博士生导师。主要从事城乡安全与防灾减灾研究。E-mail：guoxd7797@163.com

通讯作者:
王志涛，男，生于1980年。副教授，硕士生导师。主要从事城乡安全与防灾减灾研究。E-mail：wzt@bjut.edu.cn

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-02-01
- 录用日期: 2025-07-07
- 修回日期: 2025-06-12
- 网络出版日期: 2025-08-21

Cooperative Rescue Analysis of Regional Medical System Based on Simulation of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Strong Earthquake Scenario

College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China

摘要

摘要: 对伤亡人员的救治是震后应急救援工作的首要内容，医疗系统作为救治伤员的主力，其震后的功能损失和恢复能力决定了震后救援的效率。本文选取区域尺度的医疗系统，通过情景构建的方法研究强震情景下的区域协调救援。首先对震中城市的震后供需状态、医疗系统救援能力进行分析，并考虑道路系统损失对震后救援的影响，分析城市震后应急救援能力。在城市医疗系统不足以支撑自身救援的情况下，考虑区域其他城市协同救援，对周边城市医疗系统救援能力进行分析，协同救援的城市需遵循城市内外两层供需平衡的逻辑，统筹考虑周边城市的资源容量限制与总救援时间最小化问题，从而选择最优救援方案，为京津冀区域强震情景下协同救援提供思路。
- 区域协同救援 /
- 医疗系统 /
- 震后应急救援 /
- 救援能力分析
Abstract: The treatment of casualties is the primary content of post-earthquake emergency rescue work. As the main force of treating the injured, the efficiency of post-earthquake rescue is determined by the functional loss and recovery ability of the medical system. In this paper, regional scale medical system is selected for research, and regional coordinated rescue under regional strong earthquake scenario is studied by scenario construction method. First, by analyzing the post-earthquake supply and demand state of the epicenter city, the rescue capacity of the medical system, and considering the impact of the loss of the road system on the rescue after the earthquake, the emergency rescue capacity of the city after the earthquake is analyzed. In the case that the urban medical system is not enough to support its own rescue, the rescue capacity of the medical system of the surrounding cities should be analyzed by considering the coordinated rescue of other cities in the region. The coordinated rescue cities should follow the logic of the supply and demand balance between the two levels inside and outside the city. And it should take into account the resource capacity limitation of the surrounding cities and the minimization of the total rescue time, so as to select the optimal rescue plan. It provides ideas for coordinated rescue in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.
- Regional coordinated rescue /
- The medical system /
- Emergency medical rescue after the earthquake /
- Rescue capability analysis

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图 1 区域医疗系统协调救援分析研究思路

Figure 1. Research thinking of regional medical system coordinated rescue analysis

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图 2 唐山7.8级地震各烈度区分布图

Figure 2. Tangshan M_S7.8 earthquake intensity division map

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图 3 唐山市各区县居住区及救援医院分布图

Figure 3. Distribution map of residential areas and rescue hospitals in Tangshan

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图 4 唐山市震后床位数供需情况

Figure 4. Supply and demand of the number of beds after the earthquake in Tangshan city

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图 5 震后城市自身救援与区域协调救援逻辑

Figure 5. Logic of urban self-rescue and regional coordinated rescue after earthquake

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图 6 唐山市周边城市震后床位供需情况

Figure 6. Bed supply and demand of Tangshan city after the earthquake

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图 7 强震情景下交通系统通行能力分析

a）唐山市震前；（b）唐山市强震情景下；（c）唐山周边城市震前；（d）唐山周边城市强震情境下

Figure 7. Traffic capacity analysis under strong earthquake scenario

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图 8 震前与震后各区县到达受灾点时间范围

Figure 8. Time range of each district and county to reach the disaster point before and after the earthquake

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图 9 唐山市及其周边城市强震情境下受伤人数统计

Figure 9. Statistics of injured persons in Tangshan city and its surrounding cities under strong earthquake conditions

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图 10 唐山市震后医疗救援情况

Figure 10. Medical rescue in Tangshan after the earthquake

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图 11 唐山周边县市震后医疗救援情况

Figure 11. Medical rescue in Tangshan after the earthquake

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表 1 数据来源总结

Table 1. Summary of data source

数据类型	数据来源	统计截止时间
医院设施点数据	百度地图、统计年鉴、BIGEMAP平台	2023年12月
交通网络数据	BIGEMAP平台	2023年12月
城市居住区数据	百度地图、统计年鉴、BIGEMAP平台	2023年12月
城市人口数据	统计年鉴	2023年12月

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表 2 强震下研究区内不同破坏状态道路占比

Table 2. Proportion of roads with different damage states in the study area under strong earthquakes

破坏状态	路段数量占比/%
基本完好	29
轻微破坏	49
中等破坏	11
严重破坏	9
损毁	2

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表 3 各区县对唐山市医疗对点救援情况

Table 3. Medical point-to-point rescue of Tangshan by districts and counties

需救援区县		缺乏床位数量/个	外来救援区县
唐山市	丰南区	3000	天津市（河北区、红桥区、南开区）
	丰润区	3865	北京市（密云区、石景山区、西城区）
	路南区	7653	天津市（南开区、武清区、滨海新区、静海区）；唐山市（曹妃甸区）；廊坊市（大城县、文安县）
	路北区	19969	天津市（宝坻区、北辰区、西青区）；廊坊市（固安县、永清县、霸州市、广阳区、安次区、大厂县、三河市、香河县）；北京市（大兴区、朝阳区、通州区、朝阳区、东城区）
	古冶区	9287	唐山市（迁安市、迁西县）；承德市（承德县、平泉县、宽城县）；秦皇岛市（海港区、山海关区、北戴河区、青龙区）；天津市（河西区、河东区、和平区）
	开平区	8745	承德市（双滦区、双桥区）；天津市（蓟州区）；北京市（顺义区、平谷区、朝阳区）
	遵化市	62	承德市（滦平县）
	滦州市	1011	秦皇岛市（昌黎县、卢龙县、抚宁区）
	滦南县	890	唐山市（乐亭县）；天津市（东丽区、河西区）
天津市	宁河区	204	天津市（河北区）

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