Risk Analysis of a Cross-sea Bridge Under the Combined Action of Seismic and Erosion
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摘要: 本文以某跨海三塔斜拉桥为研究对象，开展了地震-冲刷联合作用下三塔斜拉桥危险性分析，给出了合理冲刷深度计算方法。首先，提出了地震-冲刷联合作用下桥梁危险性分析流程。其次，建立了符合P-Ⅲ分布的地震危险性模型，利用蒙特卡罗模拟的数值结果拟合了冲刷危险性模型。同时，以该背景桥梁为原型建立了三塔斜拉桥的非线性动力分析模型，进行了一系列非线性时程分析，在地震和冲刷危险分析模型的基础上，建立了三塔斜拉桥在确定和可变冲刷深度下的破坏概率模型。最后，通过地震-冲刷联合作用下的破坏概率模型计算出合理的冲刷深度。本文提出的危险性分析框架和分析结果可为地震-冲刷灾害下类似桥梁的设计提供理论依据。Abstract: Taking a cross-sea three-tower cable-stayed bridge as the background bridge, the risk analysis of the three-tower cable-stayed bridge under the combined action of seismic and erosion was carried out, and the reasonable calculation method of erosion depth was given. Firstly, the risk analysis process of bridge under the combined action of seismic and erosion was proposed. Secondly, the seismic risk model conforming to P-Ⅲ distribution was established, and the erosion risk model was fitted with the numerical results of Monte Carlo simulation. Then, the nonlinear dynamic analysis model of the three-tower cable-stayed bridge was established, and a series of nonlinear time-history analysis was carried out. On the basis of the seismic and erosion risk analysis model, the failure probability model of the three-tower cable-stayed bridge under fixed and variable erosion depth was established. Finally, reasonable erosion depth was calculated by the failure probability model under the combined action of seismic and erosion. The risk analysis framework and analysis results can provide theoretical basis for the design of similar bridges under seismic-scour disasters.
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Key words:
- Three-tower cable-stayed bridge /
- Seismic /
- Scour /
- Risk analysis /
- The failure probability model
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图 1 多灾害作用下风险分析框架
Figure 1. Risk analysis framework under the influence of multiple disasters
图 4 某三塔斜拉桥总体布置图（单位：米）
Figure 4. Overall layout of a three tower cable-stayed bridge（Unit:m）
图 7 三塔斜拉桥主塔地震易损性分析结果
Figure 7. Seismic fragility analysis results of the main tower of the three tower cable-stayed bridge
图 8 不同冲刷深度下三塔斜拉桥易损性结果
Figure 8. Seismic fragility analysis results of the three tower cable-stayed bridge under different scour depths
图 12 桥塔及桩基最不利弯矩比较
Figure 12. Comparison of the most unfavorable bending moment of bridge towers and pile foundation
图 13 桥梁结构损伤失效概率比较
Figure 13. Comparison of probability of damage and failure of bridge structures
表 1 冲刷深度参数概率分布
Table 1. Probability distribution of scour depth parameters
变量 均值 变异系数 分布类型 λs 0.57 0.6 正态分布 K2 1.0 0.05 正态分布 K3 1.1 0.05 正态分布 
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