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俯冲带板缘与板内地震长周期地震动参数预测模型研究

肖亮 俞言祥

肖亮,俞言祥,2021. 俯冲带板缘与板内地震长周期地震动参数预测模型研究. 震灾防御技术,16(1):71−80. doi:10.11899/zzfy20210108. doi: 10.11899/zzfy20210108
引用本文: 肖亮,俞言祥,2021. 俯冲带板缘与板内地震长周期地震动参数预测模型研究. 震灾防御技术,16(1):71−80. doi:10.11899/zzfy20210108. doi: 10.11899/zzfy20210108
Xiao Liang, Yu Yanxiang. Study on the Long-period Ground Motion Predicting Model for Interface and Intraslab Earthquakes in Subduction Zone[J]. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention, 2021, 16(1): 71-80. doi: 10.11899/zzfy20210108
Citation: Xiao Liang, Yu Yanxiang. Study on the Long-period Ground Motion Predicting Model for Interface and Intraslab Earthquakes in Subduction Zone[J]. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention, 2021, 16(1): 71-80. doi: 10.11899/zzfy20210108

俯冲带板缘与板内地震长周期地震动参数预测模型研究

doi: 10.11899/zzfy20210108
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1500400);中国地震局地球物理研究所基本科研业务费(DQJB21Z12、DQJB21Z10)共同资助
详细信息
    作者简介:

    肖亮,男,生于1984年。助理研究员。主要从事强地面运动衰减方面的研究。E-mail:Liangx@cea-igp.ac.cn

    通讯作者:

    俞言祥,男,生于1964年。研究员。主要从事工程地震学与强地面运动方面的研究。E-mail:yuyx@cea-igp.ac.cn

Study on the Long-period Ground Motion Predicting Model for Interface and Intraslab Earthquakes in Subduction Zone

  • 摘要: 对海域地震区划中涉及的我国海域有影响的俯冲带地震动参数预测模型研究进展与阶段性成果进行介绍,基于资料、回归方法等,对地震动参数预测模型建立过程进行说明。依托可靠的强震加速度记录与宽频带速度记录,采用使结果更稳定的分步回归方法,考虑俯冲带深大地震断层尺度与震源深度影响选取新的预测模型。针对我国海域实际地震环境,新的预测模型重点关注了对俯冲带长周期地震动的估计。
  • 图  1  地震事件震中分布图

    Figure  1.  Map of earthquakes epicenter location

    图  2  板缘地震记录震级-断层距分布关系图

    Figure  2.  Distribution of magnitude-distance of interface earthquakes

    图  3  板内地震记录震级-断层距分布关系图

    Figure  3.  Distribution of magnitude-distance of intraslab earthquakes

    图  4  基岩水平向加速度反应谱曲线

    Figure  4.  Spectral acceleration curves for horizontal rock ground motion

    图  5  周期6.0 s反应谱值衰减曲线

    Figure  5.  Attenuation curves for spectrum of period 6.0 s

    图  6  回归残差随震级的变化关系图

    Figure  6.  Comparison of residuals in relation with magnitude

    图  7  回归残差随断层距的变化关系图

    Figure  7.  Comparison of residuals in relation with distance

    图  8  基岩水平向加速度反应谱曲线对比结果

    Figure  8.  Comparison of spectral acceleration curves for horizontal rock ground motion

    表  1  强震资料地震目录(板缘地震)

    Table  1.   Catalog of strong earthquakes records (Interface earthquakes)

    发震时刻震中纬度N/°震中经度E/°Ms/级震源深度/km
    2000-10-03T04:13:30.490 40.282 143.124 5.7 33
    2001-08-13T20:11:23.400 41.046 142.308 6.3 38
    2001-10-02T08:19:49.460 37.739 141.775 5.2 43
    2002-11-03T03:37:42.070 38.886 141.977 6.1 39
    2003-09-25T19:50:06.360 41.815 143.910 8.1 27
    2003-09-25T21:08:00.030 41.774 143.593 7.4 33
    2003-09-29T02:36:53.140 42.450 144.380 6.3 25
    2003-10-08T09:06:55.340 42.648 144.570 6.6 32
    2003-12-29T01:30:54.700 42.423 144.613 5.9 33
    2004-04-11T18:06:12.480 42.918 144.836 5.7 42
    2004-09-01T02:49:28.610 36.959 141.607 5.1 35
    2005-01-18T14:09:06.220 42.946 144.866 5.7 42
    2005-03-11T18:47:36.690 43.085 144.674 5.0 54
    2005-07-09T23:37:11.140 33.422 140.825 5.4 55
    2005-08-16T02:46:28.400 38.276 142.039 6.8 36
    2005-10-19T11:44:42.790 36.405 140.839 6.5 32
    2005-12-02T13:13:09.520 38.089 142.122 6.3 29
    2007-11-26T13:51:39.800 37.392 141.586 5.9 42
    2008-05-07T16:45:18.700 36.164 141.526 6.8 27
    2008-07-19T02:39:28.700 37.552 142.214 7.0 22
    2008-09-11T00:20:50.920 41.892 143.754 7.0 25
    2009-06-05T03:30:33.060 41.824 143.445 6.4 29
    2010-03-14T08:08:03.960 37.745 141.590 6.5 32
    2010-07-04T21:55:51.980 39.697 142.369 6.3 27
    2011-03-09T02:45:20.330 38.435 142.842 7.3 32
    2011-03-11T05:46:24.120 38.297 142.373 9.0 29
    2011-03-11T06:15:40.280 36.281 141.111 6.8 43
    2011-03-25T11:36:24.490 38.772 141.880 6.2 39
    2011-04-07T14:32:43.290 38.276 141.588 7.1 42
    2011-04-21T13:37:03.340 35.579 140.305 6.2 43
    2011-07-10T00:57:10.800 38.034 143.264 7.0 23
    2011-07-23T04:34:24.180 38.898 141.815 6.4 41
    2011-07-24T18:51:25.070 37.730 141.390 6.3 40
    2011-07-30T18:53:50.720 36.942 140.955 6.5 38
    2011-08-19T05:36:33.040 37.671 141.652 6.3 47
    2011-09-16T19:26:40.260 40.273 142.779 6.7 30
    2011-09-16T19:26:40.260 40.273 142.779 6.7 30
    2011-11-24T10:25:34.030 41.898 142.639 6.2 38
    2012-06-17T20:32:20.590 38.919 141.831 6.4 36
    2012-12-07T08:18:23.130 37.890 143.949 7.3 31
    2015-02-16T23:06:28.270 39.8558 142.8808 6.7 23
    2015-05-12T21:12:58.890 38.9056 142.0317 6.8 35
    2016-01-14T03:25:33.640 41.9723 142.7810 6.7 46
    2018-01-24T10:51:19.090 41.1034 142.4323 6.3 31
    2018-09-05T18:07:59.150 42.6861 141.9294 6.6 35
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  宽频带资料地震目录(板缘地震)

    Table  2.   Catalog of broad-band records (Interface earthquakes)

    发震时刻震中纬度N/°震中经度E/°Ms/级震源深度/km
    2000-06-10T18:23:29.320 23.843 121.225 6.2 33
    2000-07-04T22:19:44.160 20.240 122.163 5.2 33
    2000-07-16T03:21:45.530 20.253 122.043 6.3 33
    2000-09-10T08:54:45.960 24.008 121.526 5.6 35
    2000-10-03T04:13:30.490 40.282 143.124 5.7 33
    2001-06-14T02:35:25.810 24.513 122.033 5.6 32
    2001-08-13T20:11:23.400 41.046 142.308 6.3 38
    2001-08-17T22:25:49.010 25.748 126.190 5.6 33
    2002-03-26T03:45:48.700 23.346 124.090 6.6 33
    2002-03-31T06:52:50.490 24.279 122.179 7.4 33
    2002-05-13T19:57:22.900 19.132 121.238 5.3 33
    2002-07-11T07:36:26.060 24.075 122.288 5.6 44
    2002-11-03T03:37:42.070 38.886 141.977 6.1 39
    2003-06-09T01:52:51.010 24.413 122.020 5.5 48
    2003-06-10T08:40:30.830 23.520 121.628 5.7 45
    2003-09-25T19:50:06.360 41.815 143.910 8.1 27
    2003-09-25T21:08:00.030 41.774 143.593 7.4 33
    2003-09-29T02:36:53.140 42.450 144.380 6.3 25
    2003-10-08T09:06:55.340 42.648 144.570 6.6 32
    2005-01-18T14:09:06.220 42.946 144.866 5.7 42
    2005-08-16T02:46:28.400 38.276 142.039 6.8 36
    2005-09-06T01:16:02.350 24.084 122.191 6.1 32
    2005-10-19T11:44:42.790 36.405 140.839 6.5 32
    2006-07-28T07:40:11.840 24.183 122.526 5.9 33
    2007-01-25T10:59:17.650 22.564 121.926 6.0 36
    2007-04-20T19:37:58.230 27.471 128.379 5.3 42
    2007-09-06T17:51:26.190 24.340 122.219 6.2 53
    2008-06-01T01:57:23.690 20.124 121.350 6.3 31
    2008-07-08T07:42:10.730 27.532 128.334 6.0 43
    2008-09-11T00:20:50.920 41.892 143.754 6.7 25
    2009-06-05T03:30:33.060 41.824 143.445 6.4 29
    2009-10-30T07:03:39.120 29.218 129.782 6.8 34
    2009-12-19T13:02:15.570 23.796 121.605 6.4 43
    2010-03-14T08:08:03.960 37.745 141.590 6.5 32
    2010-07-04T21:55:51.980 39.697 142.369 6.3 27
    2010-10-04T13:28:38.860 24.270 125.154 6.3 32
    2011-03-09T02:45:20.330 38.435 142.842 7.3 32
    2011-03-11T05:46:24.120 38.297 142.373 9.0 29
    2011-03-11T06:15:40.280 36.281 141.111 6.8 43
    2011-03-11T15:13:14.680 35.994 141.808 6.3 21
    2011-03-25T11:36:24.490 38.772 141.880 6.2 39
    2011-04-07T14:32:43.290 38.276 141.588 7.1 42
    2011-04-21T13:37:03.340 35.579 140.305 6.2 43
    2011-07-10T00:57:10.800 38.034 143.264 7.0 23
    2011-07-23T04:34:24.180 38.898 141.815 6.4 41
    2011-07-24T18:51:25.070 37.730 141.390 6.3 40
    2011-07-30T18:53:50.720 36.942 140.955 6.5 38
    2011-08-19T05:36:33.040 37.671 141.652 6.2 47
    2011-09-16T19:26:40.260 40.273 142.779 6.7 30
    2011-09-16T19:26:40.260 40.273 142.779 6.7 30
    2011-11-24T10:25:34.030 41.898 142.639 6.2 38
    2012-06-09T21:00:18.070 24.572 122.248 5.9 70
    2012-06-17T20:32:20.590 38.919 141.831 6.4 36
    2012-12-07T08:18:23.130 37.890 143.949 7.3 31
    2013-06-07T16:38:02.900 24.098 122.671 5.8 33
    2013-10-25T17:10:19.710 37.1557 144.6611 7.1 35
    2014-10-22T00:15:17.440 27.4158 128.5533 5.8 43
    2015-02-13T20:06:32.330 22.6374 121.4270 6.2 30
    2015-02-16T23:06:28.270 39.8558 142.8808 6.7 23
    2015-05-12T21:12:58.890 38.9056 142.0317 6.8 35
    2016-01-14T03:25:33.640 41.9723 142.7810 7.0 46
    2016-12-26T01:23:37.880 19.1524 121.1743 5.2 34
    2018-01-24T10:51:19.090 41.1034 142.4323 6.3 31
    2018-09-05T18:07:59.150 42.6861 141.9294 6.6 35
    2018-10-23T04:34:58.630 24.1153 122.6027 5.8 30
    2018-10-23T16:04:04.240 23.9912 122.6791 5.7 31
    2018-11-05T14:46:58.690 29.2376 130.5301 5.0 36
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  强震资料地震目录(板内地震)

    Table  3.   Catalog of strong earthquakes records (Intraslab earthquakes)

    发震时刻震中纬度N/°震中经度E/°Ms/级震源深度/km
    2000-06-03T08:54:49.200 35.552 140.464 5.6 62
    2001-12-02T13:01:53.670 39.402 141.089 6.5 124
    2002-04-03T23:42:12.810 41.543 141.851 5.3 71
    2002-10-14T14:12:43.750 41.174 142.249 5.9 61
    2003-05-26T09:24:33.400 38.849 141.568 6.9 68
    2003-09-20T03:54:50.780 34.998 140.172 5.3 52
    2007-04-18T15:07:31.600 42.658 141.861 5.0 120
    2007-07-01T04:12:07.750 43.663 144.734 5.8 130
    2008-07-23T15:26:19.950 39.802 141.464 6.8 108
    2008-09-22T07:31:59.170 41.578 140.450 5.2 149
    2009-02-28T00:35:56.700 42.610 142.104 5.0 105
    2009-08-12T22:48:51.420 32.821 140.395 6.6 53
    2010-03-13T12:46:26.380 37.594 141.299 5.2 77
    2013-02-02T14:17:35.130 42.770 143.092 6.9 107
    2013-11-03T05:25:15.340 35.9713 140.1213 5.1 77
    2014-06-14T17:31:41.560 39.4384 140.9876 5.0 92
    2015-07-09T18:32:51.220 40.3631 141.4646 5.0 81
    2019-04-27T17:24:45.654 42.4547 142.8191 5.4 111
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  测震资料地震目录(板内地震)

    Table  4.   Catalog of broad-band records (Intraslab earthquakes)

    发震时刻震中纬度N/°震中经度E/°Ms/级震源深度/km
    2000-01-28T16:39:24.280 26.076 124.496 5.8 194
    2000-06-03T08:54:49.200 35.552 140.464 5.6 62
    2001-12-02T13:01:53.670 39.402 141.089 6.5 124
    2003-05-26T09:24:33.400 38.849 141.568 6.9 68
    2004-10-15T04:08:50.240 24.530 122.694 6.7 94
    2005-10-15T15:51:08.130 25.309 123.351 6.4 192
    2008-07-23T15:26:19.950 39.802 141.464 6.8 108
    2008-09-09T07:43:13.320 24.666 122.570 5.0 102
    2009-03-26T19:19:59.560 27.415 126.702 5.9 160
    2009-08-12T22:48:51.420 32.821 140.395 6.6 53
    2010-01-15T11:08:38.370 26.746 126.285 5.7 139
    2011-11-08T02:59:08.510 27.324 125.621 6.9 225
    2013-02-02T14:17:35.130 42.770 143.092 6.9 107
    2013-09-06T11:33:53.520 20.1721 122.3193 6.0 175
    2014-03-02T20:11:23.430 27.4312 127.3674 6.5 119
    2014-12-10T21:03:39.260 25.5403 122.4503 6.1 256
    2014-12-31T07:54:36.890 24.6707 122.5575 5.2 104
    2016-03-14T07:03:17.710 29.8888 128.9567 5.5 211
    2016-05-31T05:23:47.310 25.5615 122.5458 6.4 246
    2017-04-30T01:57:22.160 21.2987 121.8285 5.2 106
    2017-08-16T12:51:25.870 28.6737 127.9007 5.7 198
    2019-02-17T20:36:56.890 20.6674 122.1168 5.0 169
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  板缘地震基岩水平向加速度反应谱预测模型相关参数

    Table  5.   Coefficients of horizontal rock spectral acceleration prediction model for interface earthquakes

    周期/sA1B1A2B2CDEσ
    0.01 1.812 0.555 2.339 0.474 1.935 0.956 0.462 0.377
    0.04 1.746 0.573 2.445 0.465 1.929 0.956 0.462 0.378
    0.05 1.960 0.581 2.856 0.443 1.990 0.956 0.462 0.376
    0.07 2.342 0.559 3.277 0.416 2.018 0.956 0.462 0.381
    0.10 2.432 0.562 3.303 0.428 2.044 0.956 0.462 0.374
    0.12 2.455 0.558 3.232 0.438 2.045 0.956 0.462 0.365
    0.16 2.569 0.526 2.871 0.480 2.025 0.956 0.462 0.358
    0.20 2.549 0.508 2.596 0.501 1.993 0.956 0.462 0.353
    0.24 2.412 0.510 2.480 0.500 1.946 0.956 0.462 0.339
    0.26 2.361 0.497 2.307 0.505 1.897 0.956 0.462 0.334
    0.30 2.316 0.495 2.134 0.523 1.897 0.956 0.462 0.329
    0.34 1.980 0.515 1.966 0.518 1.817 0.956 0.462 0.326
    0.40 1.684 0.539 1.735 0.532 1.781 0.956 0.462 0.325
    0.50 1.344 0.571 1.535 0.542 1.757 0.956 0.462 0.325
    0.60 1.105 0.588 1.206 0.572 1.738 0.956 0.462 0.342
    0.80 0.592 0.643 0.878 0.600 1.731 0.956 0.462 0.348
    1.00 −0.036 0.719 0.537 0.630 1.730 0.956 0.462 0.335
    1.20 −0.325 0.744 0.182 0.666 1.734 0.956 0.462 0.334
    1.50 −0.850 0.809 0.027 0.674 1.730 0.956 0.462 0.325
    1.70 −1.000 0.819 −0.107 0.682 1.720 0.956 0.462 0.324
    2.00 −1.410 0.860 −0.419 0.708 1.700 0.956 0.462 0.320
    2.40 −1.610 0.860 −0.904 0.752 1.672 0.956 0.462 0.319
    3.00 −1.891 0.873 −1.328 0.786 1.639 0.956 0.462 0.317
    4.00 −2.091 0.858 −1.994 0.845 1.605 0.956 0.462 0.316
    5.00 −2.484 0.885 −2.484 0.885 1.573 0.956 0.462 0.295
    6.00 −2.903 0.917 −2.903 0.917 1.537 0.956 0.462 0.304
    7.00 −3.273 0.945 −3.273 0.945 1.502 0.956 0.462 0.312
    8.00 −3.546 0.963 −3.546 0.963 1.463 0.956 0.462 0.311
    9.00 −3.800 0.977 −3.800 0.977 1.425 0.956 0.462 0.319
    10.00 −4.099 1.000 −4.099 1.000 1.389 0.956 0.462 0.328
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  6  板内地震基岩水平向加速度反应谱预测模型的参数

    Table  6.   Coefficients of horizontal rock spectral acceleration prediction model for intraslab earthquakes

    周期/sA1B1A2B2CDEFσ
    0.01 3.541 0.516 3.639 0.501 2.442 0.956 0.462 0.008 0.377
    0.04 3.652 0.506 3.678 0.502 2.440 0.956 0.462 0.008 0.377
    0.05 3.679 0.525 3.881 0.494 2.471 0.956 0.462 0.008 0.378
    0.07 3.825 0.528 4.094 0.486 2.488 0.956 0.462 0.008 0.376
    0.10 3.927 0.537 4.220 0.491 2.507 0.956 0.462 0.008 0.381
    0.12 4.005 0.529 4.249 0.491 2.517 0.956 0.462 0.008 0.374
    0.16 3.834 0.549 3.898 0.540 2.516 0.956 0.462 0.008 0.365
    0.20 3.678 0.562 3.707 0.558 2.506 0.956 0.462 0.008 0.358
    0.24 3.514 0.574 3.546 0.569 2.483 0.956 0.462 0.008 0.353
    0.26 3.447 0.567 3.460 0.566 2.451 0.956 0.462 0.008 0.339
    0.30 3.299 0.573 3.341 0.567 2.415 0.956 0.462 0.008 0.334
    0.34 3.334 0.565 3.341 0.563 2.426 0.956 0.462 0.007 0.329
    0.40 3.236 0.571 3.347 0.553 2.431 0.956 0.462 0.006 0.326
    0.50 3.262 0.563 3.388 0.544 2.462 0.956 0.462 0.004 0.325
    0.60 3.122 0.574 3.126 0.573 2.476 0.956 0.462 0.004 0.325
    0.80 2.778 0.637 3.348 0.549 2.560 0.956 0.462 0.004 0.342
    1.00 2.431 0.667 3.170 0.553 2.550 0.956 0.462 0.004 0.348
    1.20 2.298 0.671 3.063 0.553 2.547 0.956 0.462 0.004 0.335
    1.50 2.105 0.671 2.792 0.564 2.524 0.956 0.462 0.004 0.334
    1.70 1.682 0.718 2.705 0.561 2.501 0.956 0.462 0.004 0.325
    2.00 1.384 0.743 2.561 0.562 2.480 0.956 0.462 0.004 0.324
    2.40 1.174 0.741 2.130 0.594 2.451 0.956 0.462 0.004 0.320
    3.00 0.459 0.746 1.353 0.609 2.217 0.956 0.462 0.004 0.319
    4.00 0.219 0.675 0.219 0.675 2.039 0.956 0.462 0.004 0.317
    5.00 −0.159 0.693 −0.159 0.693 2.005 0.956 0.462 0.004 0.316
    6.00 −0.727 0.740 −0.727 0.740 1.973 0.956 0.462 0.004 0.295
    7.00 −0.941 0.742 −0.941 0.742 1.937 0.956 0.462 0.004 0.304
    8.00 −1.129 0.729 −1.129 0.729 1.863 0.956 0.462 0.004 0.312
    9.00 −1.319 0.738 −1.319 0.738 1.863 0.956 0.462 0.004 0.311
    10.00 −1.512 0.741 −1.512 0.741 1.825 0.956 0.462 0.004 0.319
    下载: 导出CSV
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    Hao Y. C., 2015. The preliminary study on characteristics of subduction-zone ground motion and its attenuation relationship. Harbin: Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration. (in Chinese)
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    Hu J. J., Hao Y. C., Xie L. L., 2014. Effects of potential earthquakes on construction and development in South China sea region. China Earthquake Engineering Journal, 36(3): 616—621. (in Chinese)
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    [11] Zhao J. X., Liang X., Jiang F., et al., 2016. Ground-motion prediction equations for subduction interface earthquakes in Japan using site class and simple geometric attenuation functions. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 106(4): 1518—1534. doi: 10.1785/0120150034
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2020-12-17
  • 网络出版日期:  2021-07-12
  • 刊出日期:  2021-03-01

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