Calculation and Analysis of Seismic Activity Parameters b Value and ν4 in the Seismic Statistical Region−Taking North China as An Example
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摘要: 本文通过收集最新现代地震资料，采用历史地震与现代地震联合求取地震活动性参数的方法，按不同地震统计时段和震级段，基于Matlab程序中给定函数计算并拟合了华北平原地震统计区、郯庐地震统计区、长江下游-南黄海地震统计区、汾渭地震统计区的b值和ν4，并将结果与五代图推荐的b值和ν4进行地震危险性分析对比，进而分析最新现代地震资料对b值和ν4的影响。研究结果对地震统计区确定b值和ν4有一定参考意义，对地震区划、工程场地地震安全性评价、省级地震危险性区划编制工作具有实际意义。Abstract: Based on the given function in the Matlab program, this paper collects the latest modern seismic data, adopts the idea of combining historical earthquakes and modern earthquakes to obtain seismicity parameters, calculates and fits the b and v4 values of four seismic statistical regions, namely, the North China Plain seismic statistical region, the Tanlu seismic statistical region, the lower Yangtze River South Yellow Sea seismic statistical region, and the Fenwei seismic statistical region, according to different seismic statistical periods and magnitude segments, And compared and calculated the seismic hazard analysis with the recommended b and ν4 values in the compilation of the Five Generation Map, and further analyzed the impact of the latest modern seismic data on the b and ν4 values. The research results of this article have certain reference significance for determining the b and ν4 values in earthquake statistical areas, and have practical significance for earthquake zoning, seismic safety evaluation of engineering sites, and the compilation of provincial-level seismic hazard zoning.
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Key words:
- Seismic activity parameter /
- b Value /
- ν4 /
- North China region
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图 1 不同坐标系下b值拟合曲线对比
Figure 1. Comparison of b value fitting curves under different coordinate systems
图 2 华北平原地震统计区b值拟合结果
Figure 2. Fitting results of b value in seismic statistical region of North China Plain
图 3 郯庐地震统计区b值拟合结果
Figure 3. Fitting results of b value in seismic statistical region of the Tan Lu
图 4 长江下游-南黄海地震统计区b值拟合结果
Figure 4. Fitting results of b value in the seismic statistical region of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the South Yellow Sea
图 5 汾渭地震统计区b值拟合结果
Figure 5. Fitting results of b value in the seismic statistical region of the Fenwei
图 6 地震统计区计算控制点分布情况
Figure 6. Distribution of calculation control points in seismic statistical region
图 7 2套地震活动性参数下地震动峰值加速度差值分布（50年超越概率10%）
Figure 7. Distribution of the difference in seismic peak acceleration between two sets of seismic activity parameters in the seismic statistical region （with a probability of exceeding 10% in 50 years）
表 1 C-S法余震时间
Table 1. Aftershock time in C-S method
主震震级/级 时间/天 主震震级/级 时间/天 3.0～3.5 11.5 6.1～6.5 510 3.6～4.0 22 6.6～7.0 790 4.1～4.5 42 7.0～7.5 915 4.6～5.0 83 7.6～8.0 960 5.1～5.5 155 8.0～8.5 985 5.6～6.0 290 ≥8.6 985 
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表 2 地震统计区2011年以来4级以上地震发生次数
Table 2. Total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 4 or above in different earthquake statistical regions since 2011
统计区名称 地震数/次 4.0～4.4 4.5～4.9 5.0～5.4 5.0～5.9 华北平原 15 10 1 1 郯庐 30 12 1 — 长江下游-南黄海 15 11 3 — 汾渭 15 4 — —
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表 3 地震统计区各震级档地震年发生率一览表（地震资料截止至2010年12月）
Table 3. List of annual occurrence rates of earthquakes with different magnitudes in earthquake statistical regions(as of December 2010)
地震统计区 时间范围/年 各震级档地震年发生率 4.0～4.4 4.5～4.9 5.0～5.4 5.5～5.9 6.0～6.4 6.5～6.9 7.0～7.4 7.5～7.9 8.0～8.4 8.5～8.9 华北平原地震统计区 1484 —2010— — 0.1763 0.0967 0.0398 0.0228 0.0096 0.0057 0.0019 — 1500 —2010— — 0.1779 0.0996 0.0411 0.0235 0.0097 0.0059 0.0020 — 1791 —2010— — 0.2222 0.0998 0.0500 0.0318 0.0184 0.0091 — — 1950—2010 3.6998 1.5711 0.3443 0.1176 0.0849 0.0685 0.0357 0.0164 — — 郯庐地震统计区 1477 —2010— — 0.1217 0.0693 0.0356 0.0150 0.0112 0.0037 0.0019 0.0019 1500 —2010— — 0.1213 0.0685 0.0352 0.0157 0.0117 0.0039 0.0020 0.0020 1892—2010 — — 0.1849 0.0924 0.0672 0.0336 0.0168 — — — 1970—2010 3.0732 1.0244 0.4634 0.0732 0.0244 0.0244 0.0244 — — — 长江下游-南黄海地震统计区 1485 —2010— — 0.1065 0.0532 0.0342 0.0171 0.0019 — — — 1491 —2010— — 0.1077 0.0538 0.0346 0.0173 0.0019 — — — 1839—2010 — — 0.2558 0.1395 0.0872 0.0465 0.0058 — — — 1970—2010 2.3415 0.9512 0.3659 0.1220 0.0976 — — — — — 汾渭地震统计区 1000 —2010— — — — 0.0247 0.0208 0.0069 0.0030 0.0020 — 1209 —2010— — — — 0.0274 0.0224 0.0075 0.0037 0.0025 — 1484 —2010— — 0.1803 0.0854 0.0323 0.0247 0.0095 0.0038 0.0019 — 1500 —2010— — 0.1761 0.0822 0.0294 0.0235 0.0098 0.0039 0.0020 — 1950-2010 2.0984 1.0164 0.4426 0.1311 0.0164 — — — — —
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表 4 地震统计区各震级档地震年发生率一览表（地震资料截止至2023年12月）
Table 4. List of annual occurrence rates of earthquakes with different magnitudes in earthquake statistical regions(as of December 2023)
地震统计区名称 时间范围/年 各震级档地震年发生率 4.0～4.4 4.5～4.9 5.0～5.4 5.5～5.9 6.0～6.4 6.5～6.9 7.0～7.4 7.5～7.9 8.0～8.4 8.5～8.9 华北平原地震统计区 1484 —2023— — 0.1759 0.0963 0.0389 0.0222 0.0093 0.0056 0.0019 — 1500 —2023— — 0.1775 0.0992 0.0401 0.0229 0.0095 0.0057 0.0019 — 1791 —2023— — 0.2189 0.0987 0.0472 0.0300 0.0172 0.0086 — — 1950—2023 3.5405 1.5000 0.3108 0.1081 0.0676 0.0541 0.0270 0.0135 — — 郯庐地震统计区 1477 —2023— — 0.1207 0.0676 0.0347 0.0146 0.0110 0.0037 0.0018 0.0018 1500 —2023— — 0.1202 0.0668 0.0344 0.0153 0.0115 0.0038 0.0019 0.0019 1892—2023 — — 0.1742 0.0833 0.0606 0.0303 0.0152 — — — 1970—2023 3.1296 1.0185 0.3704 0.0556 0.0185 0.0185 0.0185 — — — 长江下游-南黄海地震统计区 1485 —2023— — 0.1095 0.0520 0.0334 0.0167 0.0019 — — — 1491 —2023— — 0.1107 0.0525 0.0338 0.0169 0.0019 — — — 1839—2023 — — 0.2432 0.1297 0.0811 0.0432 0.0054 — — — 1970—2023 2.3148 0.9815 0.3333 0.0926 0.0741 — — — — — 汾渭地震统计区 1000 —2023— — — — 0.0244 0.0205 0.0068 0.0029 0.0020 — 1209 —2023— — — — 0.0270 0.0221 0.0074 0.0037 0.0025 — 1484 —2023— — 0.1759 0.0833 0.0315 0.0241 0.0093 0.0037 0.0019 — 1500 —2023— — 0.1718 0.0802 0.0286 0.0229 0.0095 0.0038 0.0019 — 1950—2023 1.9865 0.8919 0.3649 0.1081 0.0135 — — — — —
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表 5 各地震统计区地震活动性参数对比一览表
Table 5. Comparison of seismic activity parameters among different seismic statistical regions
地震统计区名称 五代图推荐 本文结果 对比分析 b ν4 b ν4 华北平原地震统计区 0.86 4.6 0.81 3.9 b值减小、ν4减小 郯庐地震统计区 0.85 4.0 0.80 3.0 b值减小、ν4减小 长江下游-南黄海地震统计区 0.85 3.0 0.84 2.8 b值减小、ν4减小 汾渭地震统计区 0.78 2.5 0.77 2.3 b值减小、ν4减小
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表 6 2套地震活动性参数方案下各地震统计区不同超越概率基岩地震动峰值加速度表
Table 6. Peak acceleration of bedrock seismic motion with different exceedance probabilities in each seismic statistical region under two sets of seismic activity parameter schemes
地震统计区名称 计算控制点 加速度分区 方案 50 a（63%） 50 a（10%） 50 a（2%） 峰值 差值 峰值 差值 峰值 差值 华北平原地震统计区 hb1
（37.2410 °N，115.6767 °E）0.05 g A 20.5 −0.7 63.7 −0.2 115.5 0.7 B 19.8 63.5 116.2 hb2
（36.1002 °N，116.3139 °E）0.10 g A 25.7 −0.7 84.6 −0.6 150.2 −0.2 B 25.0 84.0 150.0 hb3
（35.4580 °N，115.8361 °E）0.15 g A 37.4 −1.4 131.8 −0.5 245.1 −0.3 B 36.0 131.3 245.4 hb4
（36.1227 °N，115.6058 °E）0.20 g A 41.0 −1.5 188.3 2.3 420.0 5.1 B 39.5 190.6 425.1 hb5
（39.4218 °N，117.9615 °E）0.30 g A 54.8 −0.9 240.3 5.3 528.8 10.1 B 53.9 245.6 538.9 郯庐地震统计区 tl1
（35.2231 °N，116.8219 °E）0.05 g A 21.2 −1.6 67.0 −3.5 128.3 −4.7 B 19.6 63.5 123.6 tl2
（35.8315 °N，117.5840 °E）0.10 g A 28.3 −2.9 99.9 −5.6 201.7 −7.9 B 25.4 94.3 193.8 tl3
（36.1563 °N，119.4777 °E）0.15 g A 25.3 −2.4 102.8 −3.8 208.8 −3.0 B 22.9 99.0 205.8 tl4
（35.8153 °N，118.9612 °E）0.20 g A 32.1 −3.3 148.7 −4.2 355.7 −1.7 B 28.8 144.5 354.0 tl5
（35.0825 °N，118.6671 °E）0.30 g A 33.7 −3.5 177.8 −2.0 460.9 6.8 B 30.2 175.8 467.7 长江下游-南黄海地震统计区 nh1
（33.5189 °N，119.5458 °E）0.05 g A 18.4 −0.4 57.1 −0.7 102.1 −1.0 B 18.0 56.4 101.1 nh2
（32.9792 °N，120.1834 °E）0.10 g A 26.8 −0.7 98.2 −1.3 190.8 −2.0 B 26.1 96.9 188.8 nh3
（32.8316 °N，120.7629 °E）0.15 g A 32.9 −1.0 123.6 −1.5 235.5 −1.7 B 31.9 122.1 233.8 nh4
（33.2425 °N，120.7762 °E）0.20 g A 34.0 −1.0 183.0 −1.5 413.1 −1.6 B 33.0 181.5 411.5 汾渭地震统计区 fw1
（36.8145 °N，113.2341 °E）0.05 g A 21.4 −0.5 66.0 −1.1 117.4 −1.6 B 20.9 64.9 115.8 fw2
（37.2475 °N，111.4661 °E）0.10 g A 27.8 −1.1 106.4 −2.1 218.9 −2.8 B 26.7 104.3 216.1 fw3
（35.5529 °N，111.0402 °E）0.15 g A 35.9 −1.3 147.3 −2.8 304.4 −3.9 B 34.6 144.5 300.5 fw4
（38.3544 °N，112.9154 °E）0.20 g A 36.0 −1.5 169.6 −3.1 373.7 −3.9 B 34.5 166.5 369.8 fw5
（36.3985 °N，111.7794 °E）0.30 g A 43.2 -1.8 216.7 −3.6 493.4 −3.5 B 41.4 213.1 489.9 注：表中A代表五代图地震活动性参数方案；B代表本文地震活动性参数方案，表中地震动峰值加速度单位为Gal。差值为方案B与方案A计算得到的基岩地震动峰值加速度之差。
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