基于正态分布的双差波速比方法研究−以山东长岛震群为例

孙强; 王鹏; 张正帅

doi:10.11899/zzfy20240112

基于正态分布的双差波速比方法研究−以山东长岛震群为例

doi: 10.11899/zzfy20240112

孙强^{1, 2,},
王鹏³,
张正帅⁴

1.
淄博市应急救援指挥保障服务中心, 山东淄博 255086
2.
淄博市防震减灾中心, 山东淄博 255086
3.
山东石油化工学院, 山东东营 257061
4.
山东省地震局, 济南 250014

基金项目: 中国地震局震情跟踪青年任务（2020010120）；山东省地震局一般科研项目（YB2112）

详细信息

作者简介:
孙强，男，生于1983年。硕士，高级工程师。主要从事地震活动性及数字地震学方面的研究。E-mali：2860415183@qq.com

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-08-11
- 刊出日期: 2024-03-31

Research on Double Differential Velocity Ratio Method Based on Normal Distribution−A Case Study of Changdao Earthquake Swarm in Shandong Province

1.
) Zibo Emergency and Rescue Command Support Service Center, Zibo 255086, Shandong, China
2.
Earthquake Prevention and Disaster Reduction Center of Zibo City, Zibo 255086, Shandong, China
3.
Shandong Institute of Petroleum and Chemical Technology, Dongying 257061, Shandong, China
4.
Earthquake Agency of Shandong Province, Jinan 250014, China

摘要

摘要: 对于震源位置相对集中的震群活动，首先应用双差波速比法对台站到时数据进行2次差分，该方法充分利用不同台站纵横波的到时数据，无需地震发震时刻及位置信息，且将计算波速比范围限定在震源区附近，消除了震源区到台站传播路径的影响；然后运用正态分布的组合去除误差分布的影响，得到关于去除误差分布后的纵横波到时二维正态分布，通过公式推导确定了二维正态分布的相关系数；最后，通过计算置信椭圆长轴斜率得到长岛震群整体波速比。研究结果表明，长岛震群整体波速比为1.727 5，等地震数滑动（60个）计算得到的波速比区间为[1.488 7, 3.054 1]；2017、2018年长岛震群波速比变化与震群活动过程密切相关，同时反映了震源区介质流体饱和度、裂隙密度和状态变化。
- 双差波速比 /
- 误差传播 /
- 正态分布 /
- 相关系数 /
- 长岛震群
Abstract: For the earthquake swarm activity with relatively concentrated source locations, the method of double differential wave velocity ratio is used to make two differences on the arrival time data of the station. By doing this, the method makes full use of the arrival time data of the P and S waves of different stations, in which it takes advantage of that it does not need the information of the time and location of the earthquake.The range of the calculated wave velocity ratio is limited to the vicinity of the source area, which eliminates the influence of the propagation path from the source area to the station.Furthermore, the combination of normal distribution is used to remove the influence of the error distribution, and the two-dimensional normal distribution of the time of the P and S waves after the error distribution is obtained. Then, the correlation coefficient of two-dimensional normal distribution is determined by formula derivation.Finally, the slope of the major axis of the confidence ellipse is calculated to obtain the overall wave velocity ratio of Changdao earthquake swarm. Using the method above in this paper, we obtained that the ratio of the whole wave velocity of Changdao earthquake swarm is 1.7275, and the ratio interval of wave velocity calculated by equal number of earthquakes sliding (60) is [1.4887,3.0541]. We concluded that the change of wave velocity ratio of Changdao earthquake swarm from 2017 to 2018 is closely related to the process of swarm activity, and reflects the changes of fluid saturation, fracture density and state of the medium in the source area.
- Double differential wave velocity ratio /
- Error propagation /
- Normally distributed combination /
- The correlation coefficient /
- Changdao earthquake swarm

HTML全文

图 1 双差波速比法示意

Figure 1. Schematic diagram of double differential wave velocity ratio method

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图 2 长岛震群位置

Figure 2. Location map of Changdao earthquake swarm

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图 3 长岛震群M_L≥1.0地震震中分布（双差定位）

Figure 3. Distributio of earthquake with M_L≥1.0 in Changdao earthquake swarm(Double-Difference Hypocenter Locations)

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图 4 长岛震群P、S震相双差数据对统计结果

Figure 4. Statistical plots for data pairs of double differential P and S phases of the Changdao earthquake swarm

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图 5 长岛震群震源深度随时间变化曲线（双差定位）

Figure 5. Time variation curve of focal depth of Changdao earthquake swarm（Double-difference hypocenter locations）

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图 6 二维正态分布置信椭圆及长短轴向量

Figure 6. Two dimensional normal distribution confidence ellipses and major axis and minor axis vectors

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图 7 长岛震群波速比分析结果

Figure 7. Results of wave velocity ratio of Changdao earthquake swarm

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图 8 长岛震群双差波速比在95%置信区间内的误差范围

Figure 8. Error range within 95% confidence intervals for double difference wave velocity ratios in Changdao earthquake swarm

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图 9 多台和达法计算的长岛震群波速比曲线

Figure 9. Plot of wave velocity ratio calculated by the multiple summation method

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