Population Expousure in the High Seismic Hazard AREA of Low-elevation Coastal Zone in China from 1990 to 2015
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摘要: 中国沿海低地人口稠密、经济发达，是包括地震在内的自然灾害频发地区。由于已有研究成果缺乏对地震灾害暴露和风险的研究，本文利用CoastalDEM、Worldpop人口和中国地震动参数区划等数据，分析1990—2015年中国沿海低地地震高危险性地区人口暴露时空变化特征。研究结果表明，中国沿海低地地震高危险性地区面积为15.1×104 km2，约占全国沿海低地总面积的70.6%；1990—2015年，沿海低地地震高危险性地区暴露人口不断增加，2015年暴露人口达16869万人，与此同时，城市人口快速增长，而农村人口大幅下降。Abstract: The low-elevation coastal zone in china is densely populated and economically developed. It is also prone to natural disasters, including earthquakes. However, previous studies had a research gap on the exposure and risks of earthquakes. In this work, we analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of population exposure in the high seismic hazard area of low-elevation coastal zone in China from 1990 to 2015, based on datasets of CoastalDEM, Worldpop population data and seismic ground motion parameters zonation map of China, etc. Our results show that, the high seismic hazard area of low-elevation coastal zone is 0.151 million km2, accounting for 70.6% of the low-elevation coastal zones in China. The population in the high seismic hazard area of low-elevation coastal zones in 2015 was approximated 168.69 million. The exposured population of the high seismic hazard area in low-elevation coastal zones increased continuously, while the urban population grew rapidly and the rural population decreased significantly over the period.1) 2
https://go.climatecentral.org/coastaldem/ 2) 3http://www.worldpop.org -
图 1 中国沿海低地地震高危险性地区空间分布
Figure 1. Spatial distribution in the high seismic hazard area of low-elevation coastal zones in China
图 2 1990—2015年中国沿海低地地震高危险性地区人口时间变化
Figure 2. Population changes in the high seismic hazard area of low-elevation coastal zones in China from 1990 to 2015
图 3 中国沿海低地地震高危险性地区人口密度时空变化
Figure 3. Spatiotemporal changes of population density in the high seismic hazard area of low-elevation coastal zones in China
表 1 地震动峰值加速度与地震烈度的对比
Table 1. Comparison table between peak acceleration of ground motion and seismic intensity
地震烈度/度 地震动峰值加速度/g Ⅶ 0.1、0.15 Ⅷ 0.2、0.3 Ⅸ 0.4 
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表 2 1990—2015年沿海低地地震高危险性地区不同烈度区的暴露人口
Table 2. Population exposed to different intensity zones in the high seismic hazard area of low-elevation coastal zones in China from 1990 to 2015
时间/年 烈度区 暴露人口/万人 占比/% 人口密度/（人·km−2） 1990 Ⅶ度区 8 838 84.2 698 Ⅷ度区 1 641 15.6 868 Ⅸ度区 20.8 0.2 42 2000 Ⅶ度区 10 990 83.4 867 Ⅷ度区 2 138 16.2 1 131 Ⅸ度区 47.3 0.4 95 2010 Ⅶ度区 13 543 84.7 1 069 Ⅷ度区 2 406 15.0 1 273 Ⅸ度区 47.3 0.3 95 2015 Ⅶ度区 14 265 84.6 1 126 Ⅷ度区 2 557 15.2 1 353 Ⅸ度区 46.5 0.3 93
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表 3 1990—2015年中国沿海低地地震高危险性地区不同烈度区的城乡人口变化
Table 3. Urban and rural population changes in different intensity zones of the high seismic hazard area in low-elevation coastal zones, China from 1990 to 2015
烈度区 总人口变化量/万人 城市人口变化量/万人 农村人口变化量/万人 Ⅶ度区 5 427（增幅61.4%） 8 143（增幅568%） −2 716（减幅36.7%） Ⅷ度区 916（增幅55.8%） 1 320（增幅259.8%） −404（减幅35.7%） Ⅸ度区 25.7（增幅124.2%） 29.2（增幅695.2%） −3.5（减幅20.7%）
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