青海玛多MS7.4地震前b值时空变化特征

杜航; 杨云; 郑江蓉; 王俊; 张扬; 宫杰

doi:10.11899/zzfy20220409

青海玛多M_S7.4地震前b值时空变化特征

doi: 10.11899/zzfy20220409

江苏省地震局, 南京 210014

基金项目: 江苏省地震局青年科学基金（202102）；地震预测开放基金（XH22033D）；江苏省地震局科技创新团队（202204）

详细信息

作者简介:
杜航，男，生于1991年。工程师。主要从事地震监测、预报等方面研究。E-mail：duh@mail.ustc.edu.cn

计量
- 文章访问数: 148
- HTML全文浏览量: 25
- PDF下载量: 32
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-11-08
- 刊出日期: 2022-12-31

Temporal and Spatial Variation of b-value before Maduo M_S7.4 Earthquake

Jiangsu Earthquake Agency, Nanjing 210014, China

摘要

摘要: 大量研究表明地震孕育过程中存在相对平静期，该阶段b值会相对下降，b值变化在地震活动性研究中起着十分重要的作用。2021年5月22日青海玛多发生M_S7.4地震，为研究地震前b值时空变化特征，本文截取2009年至震前地震目录，将地震目录分为去除余震目录、完整地震目录，对比研究b值变化特征。研究发现，玛多M_S7.4地震前1年b值开始低于均值且不断下降，至b值有上升趋势时地震发生，扩大到区域内其它5级以上地震，也符合此规律，地震发生后b值明显上升，短时间内又下降至较低位置，并一直处于较低位置直至下次地震发生；从b值空间扫描结果看，玛多M_S7.4地震前，震中位于低b值区域，该位置为b值最低处；通过不同时间段的b值空间扫描结果，可发现玛多M_S7.4地震发生前低b值区域向震中不断迁移，表明地震发生前震中附近应力不断集中；b值空间扫描时，完整地震目录掩盖了中强震震中区域低b值特性，去余震地震目录较好的凸显了中强震震中区域低b值特性。
- 玛多M_S7.4地震 /
- b值 /
- 时空扫描 /
- 地震目录
Abstract: A large number of studies have shown that there is a corresponding quiet period in the gestation process of an earthquake, during which the b-value will decrease accordingly, and the change of b-value plays a very important role in the study of seismic activity. M_S7.4 earthquakes occurred in Maduo County, Qinghai Province on May 22, 2021. To study the relationship between the spatiotemporal changes of b-value before the earthquake, the earthquake catalog from 2009 to before the earthquakesis extracted to study the changes of b-value in the earthquake focal area. The results show that the b-values of this earthquake in the focal area of earthquake with a magnitude of more than 5 decreased correspondingly about half a year before the earthquake, while the b-value rises suddenly and then decreases rapidly before the earthquake, and the earthquake mostly occurs in the descending stage. In this paper, short-term spatiotemporal scanning was carried out for two earthquakes above M5 in the focal area, and the epicenters were all located in low b-value region. This study found that short-term changes in b-values seem to be related to earthquakes. The epicenters of moderate and strong earthquakes in the study area are all located in low b-value areas. Further research is needed to determine whether this feature is universal or not, and ultimately to find the best earthquake prediction method.
- Maduo M_S7.4 earthquake /
- b-value /
- Short space-temporal scanning /
- Earthquake catalogue

HTML全文

图 1 青藏高原主要活动断裂及历史地震分布

Figure 1. Simplified distribution of main active faults and historic earthquakes in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 研究区域中强震（M_S≥5.0）及玛多地震余震（M_L≥3.0）分布图

Figure 2. Simplified distribution of major earthquake（M_S≥5.0）and Maduo earthquake aftershocks（M_L≥3.0）in the study area

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 研究区域2009年1月1日—2021年4月30日震级-频次图

Figure 3. The frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes in the study area during January, 2009—April, 2021

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 b值时间曲线

Figure 4. The temporal variation of b value

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 去余震目录b值空间分布图像

Figure 5. Spatial distribution of b value with deleting aftershock

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 完整目录b值空间分布图像

Figure 6. Spatial distribution of b value without deleting aftershock

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

参考文献(45)

陈凌, 刘杰, 陈颙等, 1998. 地震活动性分析中余震的删除. 地球物理学报, 41（S1）: 244—252

Chen L. , Liu J. , Chen Y. , et al. , 1998. Aftershock deletion in seismicity analysis. Acta Geophysics Sinica, 41(S1): 244—252. (in Chinese)

陈培善, 白彤霞, 李保昆, 2003. b值和地震复发周期. 地球物理学报, 46（4）: 510—519 doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0001-5733.2003.04.013

Chen P. S. , Bai T. X. , Li B. K. , 2003. b-value and earthquake occurrence period. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 46(4): 510—519. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0001-5733.2003.04.013

邓起东, 张培震, 冉勇康等, 2003. 中国活动构造与地震活动. 地学前缘, 10（S1）: 66—73

Deng Q. D. , Zhang P. Z. , Ran Y. K. , et al. , 2003. Active tectonics and earthquake activities in China. Earth Science Frontiers, 10(S1): 66—73. (in Chinese)

邓文泽, 杨志高, 席楠等, 2021.2021年5月22日青海玛多M7.4地震的快速测定与数据产品产出. 中国地震, 37（2）: 541—550 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4683.2021.02.025

Deng W. Z. , Yang Z. G. , Xi N. , et al. , 2021. Fast determination and data production related to the M7.4 earthquake on May 22, 2021 in Maduo, Qinghai province. Earthquake Research in China, 37(2): 541—550. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4683.2021.02.025

韩晓明, 张文韬, 王树波等, 2016. 河套地震带的b值时空变化特征分析. 中国地震, 32（3）: 522—532 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4683.2016.03.009

Han X. M. , Zhang W. T. , Wang S. B. , et al. , 2016. Analysis of spatial and temporal variation characteristics of b-value in the Hetao seismic belt. Earthquake Research in China, 32(3): 522—532. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4683.2016.03.009

刘艳辉, 赵根模, 吴中海等, 2015. 青藏高原东南缘及邻区近年来地震b值特征. 地质通报, 34（1）: 58—70 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-2552.2015.01.005

Liu Y. H. , Zhang G. M. , Wu Z. H. , et al. , 2015. An analysis ofb-value characteristics of earthquake on the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and its neighboring areas. Geological Bulletin of China, 34(1): 58—70. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-2552.2015.01.005

潘家伟, 白明坤, 李超等, 2021.2021年5月22日青海玛多M7.4地震地表破裂带及发震构造. 地质学报, 95（6）: 1655—1670 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0001-5717.2021.06.001

Pan J. W. , Bai M. K. , Li C. , et al. , 2021. Coseismic surface rupture and seismogenic structure of the 2021-05-22 Maduo (Qinghai) M_S7.4 earthquake. Acta Geologica Sinica, 95(6): 1655—1670. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0001-5717.2021.06.001

石峰, 李安, 杨晓平等, 2013. 甘孜-玉树断裂带东南段晚第四纪活动性研究. 地震地质, 35（1）: 50—63 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2013.01.004

Shi F. , Li A. , Yang X. P. , et al. , 2013. Research on late quaternary activity of the southeastern segment of Ganzi-Yushu fault zone. Seismology and Geology, 35(1): 50—63. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2013.01.004

史海霞, 孟令媛, 张雪梅等, 2018. 汶川地震前的b值变化. 地球物理学报, 61（5）: 1874—1882 doi: 10.6038/cjg2018M0024

Shi H. X. , Meng L. Y. , Zhang X. M. , et al. , 2018. Decrease in b value prior to the Wenchuan earthquake (M_S8.0). Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 61(5): 1874—1882. (in Chinese) doi: 10.6038/cjg2018M0024

闻学泽, 徐锡伟, 郑荣章等, 2003. 甘孜-玉树断裂的平均滑动速率与近代大地震破裂. 中国科学（D辑）, 33（S1）: 199—208.

Wen X. Z., Xu X. W., Zheng R. Z., et al., 2003. Average slip-rate and recent large earthquake ruptures along the Garzê-Yushu fault. Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences, 46（2）: 276—288.

闻学泽, 2018. 巴颜喀拉块体东边界千年破裂历史与2008年汶川、2013年芦山和2017年九寨沟地震. 地震学报, 40（3）: 255—267 doi: 10.11939/jass.20170211

Wen X. Z. , 2018. The 2008 Wenchuan, 2013 Lushan and 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquakes, Sichuan, in the last more than one thousand years of rupture history of the eastern margin of the Bayan Har block. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 40(3): 255—267. (in Chinese) doi: 10.11939/jass.20170211

谢卓娟, 吕悦军, 方怡等, 2019. 京津冀地区的地震活动性研究. 地球物理学进展, 34（3）: 961—968 doi: 10.6038/pg2019AA0624

Xie Z. J. , Lv Y. J. , Fang Y. , et al. , 2019. Research on the seismic activity of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Progress in Geophysics, 34(3): 961—968. (in Chinese) doi: 10.6038/pg2019AA0624

熊仁伟, 任金卫, 张军龙等, 2010. 玛多-甘德断裂甘德段晚第四纪活动特征. 地震, 30（4）: 65—73 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-3274.2010.04.008

Xiong R. W. , Ren J. W. , Zhang J. L. , et al. , 2010. Late quaternary active characteristics of the Gande segment in the Maduo-Gande fault zone. Earthquake, 30(4): 65—73. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-3274.2010.04.008

徐锡伟, 陈文彬, 于贵华等, 2002.2001年11月14日昆仑山库赛湖地震（M_S8.1）地表破裂带的基本特征. 地震地质, 24（1）: 1—13 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2002.01.001

Xu X. W. , Chen W. B. , Yu G. H. , et al. , 2002. Characteristic features of the surface ruptures of the Hoh Sai Hu (Kunlunshan) earthquake (M_S8.1), northern Tibetan Plateau, China. Seismology and Geology, 24(1): 1—13. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2002.01.001

易桂喜, 闻学泽, 王思维等, 2006. 由地震活动参数分析龙门山-岷山断裂带的现今活动习性与强震危险性. 中国地震, 22（2）: 117—125 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4683.2006.02.001

Yi G. X. , Wen X. Z. , Wang S. W. , et al. , 2006. Study on fault sliding behaviors and strong-earthquake risk of the Longmenshan-Minshan fault zones from current seismicity parameters. Earthquake Research in China, 22(2): 117—125. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4683.2006.02.001

易桂喜, 闻学泽, 2007. 多地震活动性参数在断裂带现今活动习性与地震危险性评价中的应用与问题. 地震地质, 29（2）: 254—271 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2007.02.005

Yi G. X. , Wen X. Z. , 2007. The application and limitation of multiple seismicity parameters to assessing current faulting behavior and seismic potential of active fault zones. Seismology and Geology, 29(2): 254—271. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2007.02.005

曾宪伟, 李文君, 马翀之等, 2021. 基于b值分析宁夏吴忠-灵武地区强震危险性. 地震研究, 44（1）: 41—48 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0666.2021.01.006

Zeng X. W. , Li W. J. , Ma C. Z. , et al. , 2021. Strong earthquake risk in Wuzhong-Lingwu region of Ningxia based on b-value. Journal of Seismological Research, 44(1): 41—48. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0666.2021.01.006

詹艳, 梁明剑, 孙翔宇等, 2021.2021年5月22日青海玛多M_S7.4地震深部环境及发震构造模式. 地球物理学报, 64（7）: 2232—2252 doi: 10.6038/cjg2021O0521

Zhan Y. , Liang M. J. , Sun X. Y. , et al. , 2021. Deep structure and seismogenic pattern of the 2021.5. 22 Madoi (Qinghai) M_S7.4 earthquake.Chinese Journal of Geophysics,64(7):2232—2252.(in Chinese) doi: 10.6038/cjg2021O0521

张培震, 邓起东, 张国民等, 2003. 中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块. 中国科学（D辑）, 33（S1）: 12—20.

Zhang P. Z., Deng Q. D., Zhang G. M., et al., 2003. Active tectonic blocks and strong earthquakes in the continent of China. Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences, 46（2）: 13—24.

张喆, 许力生, 2021.2021年青海玛多M_W7.5地震矩心矩张量解. 地震学报, 43（3）: 387—391 doi: 10.11939/jass.20210079

Zhang Z. , Xu L. S. , 2021. The centroid moment tensor solution of the 2021 M_W7.5 Maduo, Qinghai, earthquake. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 43(3): 387—391. (in Chinese) doi: 10.11939/jass.20210079

Aki K., 1965. Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula logN=a-bM and its confidence limits. Bulletin of the Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, 43(2): 237—239.

Chen G. H. , Xu X. W. , Wen X. Z. , et al. , 2016. Late Quaternary slip-rates and slip partitioning on the southeastern Xianshuihe fault system, eastern Tibetan plateau. Acta Geologica Sinica (English Edition), 90(2): 537—554. doi: 10.1111/1755-6724.12689

Chevalier M. L., Leloup P. H., Replumaz A., et al., 2018. Temporally constant slip rate along the Ganzi Fault, NW Xianshuihe fault system, eastern Tibet. GSA Bulletin, 130(3—4): 396—410.

Gutenberg B. , Richter C. F. , 1944. Frequency of earthquakes in California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 34(4): 185—188. doi: 10.1785/BSSA0340040185

Keilis-Borok V. I. , Konopoff L. , 1980. Bursts of aftershock of strong earthquakes. Nature, 283(P5744): 259—263.

Kirby E. , Harkins N. , Wang E. Q. , et al. , 2007. Slip rate gradients along the eastern Kunlun fault. Tectonics, 26(2): TC2010.

Kun F. , Varga I. , Lennartz-Sassinek S. , et al. , 2013. Approach to failure in porous granular materials under compression. Physical Review E, 88(6): 062207. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.88.062207

Mogi K. , 1962. Study of the elastic shocks caused by the fracture of heterogeneous materials and its relation to earthquake phenomena. Bulletin of the Earthquake Research Institute, 40(1): 125—173.

Molnar P. , Stock J. M. , 2009. Slowing of India’s convergence with Eurasia since 20 Ma and its implications for Tibetan mantle dynamics. Tectonics, 28(3): TC3001.

Mousavi S. M. , Ogwari P. O. , Horton S. P. , et al. , 2017. Spatio-temporal evolution of frequency-magnitude distribution and seismogenic index during initiation of induced seismicity at Guy-Greenbrier, Arkansas. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 267: 53—66. doi: 10.1016/j.pepi.2017.04.005

Nanjo K. Z. , Yoshida A. , 2018. A b map implying the first eastern rupture of the Nankai Trough earthquakes. Nature Communications, 9(1): 1117. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-03514-3

Nievas C. I. , Bommer J. J. , Crowley H. , et al. , 2020. Global occurrence and impact of small-to-medium magnitude earthquakes: a statistical analysis. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 18(1): 1—35. doi: 10.1007/s10518-019-00718-w

Nuannin P. , Kulhánek O. , Persson L. , 2012. Variations of b-values preceding large earthquakes in the Andaman-Sumatra subduction zone. Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, 61: 237—242. doi: 10.1016/j.jseaes.2012.10.013

Reasenberg P. , 1985. Second-order moment of central California seismicity, 1969—1982. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 90(B7): 5479—5495. doi: 10.1029/JB090iB07p05479

Ren J. J. , Xu X. W. , Yeats R. S. , et al. , 2013. Millennial slip rates of the Tazang fault, the eastern termination of Kunlun Fault: implications for strain partitioning in eastern Tibet. Tectonophysics, 608: 1180—1200. doi: 10.1016/j.tecto.2013.06.026

Rivière J. , Lv Z. , Johnson P. A. , et al. , 2018. Evolution of b-value during the seismic cycle: insights from laboratory experiments on simulated faults. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 482: 407—413. doi: 10.1016/j.jpgl.2017.11.036

Rui X. , Stamps D. S. , 2016. Present-day kinematics of the eastern Tibetan Plateau and Sichuan Basin: Implications for lower crustal rheology. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 121(5): 3846—3866. doi: 10.1002/2016JB012839

Sandri L. , Marzocchi W. , 2007. A technical note on the bias in the estimation of the b-value and its uncertainty through the Least Squares technique. Annals of Geophysics, 50(3): 329—339.

Scholz C. H. , 1968. The frequency-magnitude relation of microfracturing in rock and its relation to earthquakes. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 58(1): 399—415. doi: 10.1785/BSSA0580010399

Scholz C. H. , 2015. On the stress dependence of the earthquake b value. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(5): 1399—1402. doi: 10.1002/2014GL062863

Tormann T. , Enescu B. , Woessner J. , et al. , 2015. Randomness of megathrust earthquakes implied by rapid stress recovery after the Japan earthquake. Nature Geoscience, 8(2): 152—158. doi: 10.1038/ngeo2343

Weichert D. H. , 1980. Estimation of the earthquake recurrence parameters for unequal observation periods for different magnitudes. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 70(4): 1337—1346. doi: 10.1785/BSSA0700041337

Wiemer S. , Wyss M. , 2000. Minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs: examples from Alaska, the western United States, and Japan. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 90(4): 859—869. doi: 10.1785/0119990114

Xu X. W. , Yu G. H. , Klinger Y. , et al. , 2006. Reevaluation of surface rupture parameters and faulting segmentation of the 2001 Kunlunshan earthquake (M_W7.8), northern Tibetan Plateau, China. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 111(B5): B05316.

Zhang P. Z. , 2013. A review on active tectonics and deep crustal processes of the western Sichuan region, eastern margin of the Tibetan plateau. Tectonophysics, 584: 7—22. doi: 10.1016/j.tecto.2012.02.021

施引文献

资源附件(0)

访问统计