• ISSN 1673-5722
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基于POT模型的昆仑山地区地震统计特征分析

任晴晴 赵宜宾 钱小仕 李科长 张艳芳

任晴晴,赵宜宾,钱小仕,李科长,张艳芳,2022. 基于POT模型的昆仑山地区地震统计特征分析. 震灾防御技术,17(3):529−538. doi:10.11899/zzfy20220312. doi: 10.11899/zzfy20220312
引用本文: 任晴晴,赵宜宾,钱小仕,李科长,张艳芳,2022. 基于POT模型的昆仑山地区地震统计特征分析. 震灾防御技术,17(3):529−538. doi:10.11899/zzfy20220312. doi: 10.11899/zzfy20220312
Ren Qingqing, Zhao Yibin, Qian Xiaoshi, Li Kechang, Zhang Yanfang. Analysis of Seismic Statistical Characteristics Based on POT Model in Kunlun Mountain Area[J]. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention, 2022, 17(3): 529-538. doi: 10.11899/zzfy20220312
Citation: Ren Qingqing, Zhao Yibin, Qian Xiaoshi, Li Kechang, Zhang Yanfang. Analysis of Seismic Statistical Characteristics Based on POT Model in Kunlun Mountain Area[J]. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention, 2022, 17(3): 529-538. doi: 10.11899/zzfy20220312

基于POT模型的昆仑山地区地震统计特征分析

doi: 10.11899/zzfy20220312
基金项目: 中央高校基本科研业务费项目(ZY20140203,ZY20210311);河北省地震科技星火计划项目重点项目(DZ20200827053);河北省高等学校科学技术研究项目(Z2020224)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    任晴晴,女,生于1987年。硕士,讲师。主要从事应用数学、统计学等方面研究。E-mail:renqingtian126@126.com

    通讯作者:

    赵宜宾,男,生于1976年。硕士,教授。主要从事模糊数学等方面研究。E-mail:zhaoyibin5362@126.com

Analysis of Seismic Statistical Characteristics Based on POT Model in Kunlun Mountain Area

  • 摘要: 极值统计是研究较少发生但一旦发生即产生极大影响的随机事件的有效方法。本文以地震活动频繁的昆仑山地区作为研究区域,建立了基于广义帕累托分布的超阈值(POT)模型,并讨论了该地区若干地震活动性参数,包括强震震级分布、潜在震级上限、强震平均复发间隔、一定周期内的强震发震概率、一定时期内的重现水平和超定值重现震级。经统计分析得到:该地区震级阈值选定为MS5.5,超阈值期望震级为MS6.81,潜在震级上限高达MS9.08,MS8.0的平均复发间隔仅为66.8年,未来3年该地区发生MS5.5~MS6.5的概率在80%以上,百年重现水平即可达到历史最大震级MS8.1。
  • 图  1  1900—2019年地震数据统计

    Figure  1.  Statistical graphs of seismic datas from 1900 to 2019

    图  2  震级平均剩余寿命

    Figure  2.  Mean remaining life of magnitude

    图  3  基于不同阈值的参数估计

    Figure  3.  Parameters estimations with respect to different thresholds

    图  4  昆仑山地区震级的阈值超出量模型诊断结果

    Figure  4.  Model fitting diagnosis chart of Kunlun mountains area

    图  5  昆仑山地区G-R关系

    Figure  5.  G-R graph of Kunlun mountain area

    图  6  本文模型与泊松(指数)分布比较

    Figure  6.  Comparison between the model in this paper and the poisson (exponential) distribution

    表  1  超阈值震级基本信息

    Table  1.   Basic information of over threshold magnitudes

    最小值四分之一分位数中位数平均值四分之三分位数最大值极差标准差
    5.595.806.006.206.438.102.510.58
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  G-R关系计算结果

    Table  2.   Calculation results of G-R relationship

    起始时间/年$ {M_{\min }} $ab${M_{{\rm{theo}}} }$
    19232.512.956 51.536 98.43
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  不同震级复发间隔及发震概率

    Table  3.   Recurrence cycle and occurrence probability of different magnitudes

    震级MS/级5.56.06.57.07.58.08.5
    平均复发间隔/年0.50.91.84.413.866.8882.9
    1年内发震概率0.886 40.687 50.427 10.203 60.070 10.014 90.001 1
    3年内发震概率0.998 50.969 50.812 00.494 90.196 00.043 90.003 4
    5年内发震概率1.000 00.997 00.938 30.679 70.304 80.072 20.005 6
    10年内发震概率1.000 01.000 00.996 20.897 40.516 70.139 10.011 3
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  重现水平

    Table  4.   Recurrence level

    项目周期/年
    125102050100
    重现水平(MS6.116.577.067.377.647.928.10
    95%置信区间(5.89,6.33)(6.29,6.85)(6.77,7.35)(7.03,7.71)(7.23,8.05)(7.37,8.47)(7.43,8.77)
    超定值期望震级(MS6.697.057.467.717.928.158.30
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2021-12-15
  • 刊出日期:  2022-09-30

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