2022年青海门源<i>M</i><sub>S</sub>6.9地震后冷龙岭断裂未来强震的水平位错量评估

吴果; 孙浩越; 吕丽星; 冉洪流; 周庆; 周介元

doi:10.11899/zzfy20220211

2022年青海门源M_S6.9地震后冷龙岭断裂未来强震的水平位错量评估

doi: 10.11899/zzfy20220211

中国地震局地质研究所, 北京 100029

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划（2021YFC3000605）

详细信息

作者简介:
吴果，男，生于1988年。博士，助理研究员。主要从事地震活动性和地震危险性研究工作。E-mail：wgfirst@foxmail.com

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-03-01
- 刊出日期: 2022-06-30

Assessment of Horizontal Displacements for Future Strong Earthquakes on the Lenglongling Fault after the 2022 M_S6.9 Menyuan Earthquake, Qinghai Province, China

Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China

摘要

摘要: 2022年1月8日青海门源发生Ｍ_S6.9地震，该地震造成冷龙岭断裂西端错断了兰新铁路大梁隧道，导致铁路长期停运，经济损失巨大。制定隧道修复方案时，需对冷龙岭断裂未来强震的水平位错量进行评估。结合近年来冷龙岭断裂的最新研究进展，同时采用确定性方法和概率断层位错危险性分析方法评估冷龙岭断裂未来强震的水平位错量。考虑不确定因素影响，同时采用3名研究者提供的震级与最大位错量经验关系式进行估算。结果表明，不同经验关系式会对评估结果产生显著影响，其中根据确定性方法得到的冷龙岭断裂未来强震的水平位错量为2.32～4.36 m，均值为3.57 m。概率断层位错危险性分析结果随着超越概率的降低而增大，50年超越概率2%、100年超越概率2%和100年超越概率1%的结果均值分别为1.82 m、3.17 m、4.61 m。相较于确定性方法，概率断层位错危险性分析可提供不同超越概率水平下的位错参数，以供不同抗震设防要求的建筑采用。此外，对于地震活动性强的断裂，可采用低超越概率下的概率断层位错危险性分析结果，该结果可能会大于确定性方法评估结果。
- 门源M_S6.9地震 /
- 冷龙岭断裂 /
- 水平位错 /
- 概率断层位错危险性分析
Abstract: On January 8, 2022, a M_s6.9 earthquake occurred in Menyuan, Qinghai province, China. During the earthquake, the west end of the Lenglongling fault broke the Daliang tunnel of the Lanxin Railway, resulting in a long-term suspension of the railway and huge economic losses. When formulating the tunnel repair plan, it is necessary to assess the horizontal displacement amount of the future strong earthquakes on the Lenglongling fault. Based on the latest research progress of the Lenglongling fault, we simultaneously use the deterministic method and the probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA) method to evaluate this parameter. To account for uncertainty, the empirical relationships between the magnitude and the maximum displacement provided by three researchers are used for estimation. The results show that different empirical relationships have a significant impact on the evaluation results, and the results of the deterministic method are varying from 2.32 m to 4.36 m, with an average value of 3.57 m. The results of PFDHA increase with the decrease of the exceedance probability. The mean values of the PFDHA results under exceeding probabilities of 2% in 50 years, 2% in 100 years, and 1% in 100 years are 1.82 m, 3.17 m, and 4.61 m, respectively. Compared with the deterministic method, PFDHA can provide displacement parameters at different levels of exceeding probability, which is convenient for buildings with different anti-seismic design requirements. In addition, for faults with strong seismic activity, the PFDHA results under low probability of exceedance can be used, which may be larger than those assessed by deterministic method.
- Menyuan M_S6.9 earthquake /
- Lenglongling fault /
- Horizontal displacements /
- Probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis

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图 1 门源M_S6.9地震构造背景

Figure 1. Tectonic background map of Menyuan M_S6.9 earthquake

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图 2 大梁隧道破坏情况

Figure 2. Photos of Daliang tunnel damaged by Menyuan M_S6.9 earthquake

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表 1 确定性方法给出的水平位错量评估结果

Table 1. Assessment results of horizontal displacement by deterministic method

方法类型	最大水平位错量/m	最大水平位错量平均值/m
邓起东等（1992）关系式	4.03	3.57
冉洪流（2011）关系式	4.36
Wells等（1994）关系式	2.32

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表 2 概率断层位错危险性分析得到的水平位错量评估结果

Table 2. Assessment results of horizontal displacement by probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis

项目	水平位错量/m
项目	50年超越概率2%	100年超越概率2%	100年超越概率1%
邓起东等（1992）给出的关系式	1.96	3.73	5.73
冉洪流（2011）给出的关系式	2.89	4.37	5.77
Wells等（1994）给出的关系式	0.61	1.40	2.32
平均值	1.82	3.17	4.61
平均值^*	2.68	4.08	5.48
平均值^*/平均值	1.47	1.29	1.19

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