“情景-应对”型理论体系的发展及其在地震灾害应急管理中的应用探讨

陈波; 王芳; 肖本夫

doi:10.11899/zzfy20210401

“情景-应对”型理论体系的发展及其在地震灾害应急管理中的应用探讨

doi: 10.11899/zzfy20210401

1.
中国地震局地球物理研究所, 北京100081
2.
四川省地震局, 成都610041

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目 (2019YFC1509402)；中国地震局地球物理研究所基本科研业务费专项(DQJB19A0132)

详细信息

作者简介:
陈波，男，生于1987年。博士，副研究员。主要从事地震工程学与城市减灾技术研究工作。E-mail：chenbo@cea-igp.ac.cn

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-10-18
- 刊出日期: 2021-12-31

The Development of “Scenario-response” Theoretical System and Its Application in Earthquake Disaster Emergency Management

1.
Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China
2.
Sichuan Earthquake Agency, Chengdu 610041, China

摘要

摘要: “情景-应对”型理论体系基于事件静、动态情景分析生成应急决策方案，已成为重大突发事件应急决策的基本范式。近年来，“情景-应对”研究理论的迅速发展极大地拓宽了其应用范围，逐渐被引入地震应急中，在一定程度上能够弥补传统“预测-应对”模式的不足，为震后高效行动及充分应对提供有效支撑。本文从情景识别、情景推演及应对处置方案生成等方面详细介绍了“情景-应对”理论体系发展中涉及的关键技术，阐述了其在地震灾害应急管理中的应用。通过对已有研究的回顾，分析讨论了该领域的最新进展及需进一步解决的问题。
- 情景-应对 /
- 情景识别 /
- 情景推演 /
- 地震灾害 /
- 应急管理
Abstract: The “scenario-response” theoretical system, which generates emergency decision-making schemes based on the static and dynamic scenario analysis of unexpected incidents, has become the basic paradigm of emergency decision-making for major emergencies. In recent years, the rapid development of the “scenario-response” theory has greatly broadened its scope of application, and has been gradually applicable to earthquake emergency. To some extent, it could make up for the shortcomings of the traditional “prediction-response” model, and provide effective support for efficient and adequate post-earthquake actions. This paper introduces the key technologies involved in the development of the “scenario-response” from the aspects of scenario recognition, scenario deduction, and emergency decision-making schemes generation in detail, and then elaborates its application in earthquake disaster emergency management. Through the review of previous studies, the new progress in the field and the existing problems are analyzed and discussed.
- Scenario-response /
- Scenario recognition /
- Scenario deduction /
- Earthquake disaster /
- Emergency management

HTML全文

图 1 突发事件情景演化的动态贝叶斯网络

Figure 1. Dynamic Bayesian network for the scenario evolution of emergent events

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 突发事件应急决策方案生成基本流程

Figure 2. Flow chart of generating emergency decision plan for emergency events

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 地震灾害情景链

Figure 3. Earthquake disaster scenario chains

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 生命线应急任务分解结构

Figure 4. Breakdown structure for the lifeline emergency task

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 部分情景条件概率取值

Table 1. Condition probabilities of some scenarios

情景名称	取值	发生概率
建筑物倒塌	极少倒塌	0.350 8
	大半倒塌	0.223 4
	绝大多数倒塌	0.425 7
通信中断	没有中断	0
通信中断	中断	1
交通中断	没有中断	0
交通中断	中断	1
供水、供电、供气设施破坏	设施破坏但短时间能恢复	0.331 8
供水、供电、供气设施破坏	瘫痪	0.668 2
危险品泄漏	没有泄漏	0.662 6
危险品泄漏	泄漏	0.337 4
火灾	极少（10次以下）	0.786 1
火灾	次数多/发生大规模火灾	0.213 9
人员死亡	在可接受死亡人数范围内	0.389 7
人员死亡	大于可接受死亡人数	0.610 3
生活物资缺乏程度	不缺乏	0.129 7
生活物资缺乏程度	缺乏	0.870 3
社会大众恐慌程度	无	0
社会大众恐慌程度	恐慌严重	1
社会公共安全事件严重程度	无	0.456 0
社会公共安全事件严重程度	哄抢、抢劫等	0.544 0
疫情种类	无疫情或传染性小	0.576 5
疫情种类	死亡率高的传染性疾病	0.423 5

下载: 导出CSV

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