Research on the Requirement Model of People’s Livelihood for Earthquake Emergency and Rescue
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摘要: 根据《应急物资分类及编码》（GB/T 38565—2020），对震后所需应急救援民生保障物资种类进行梳理，参考地震应急处置经验和有关专家学者的研究成果，制定地震应急救援基本民生保障物资最低需求标准。对2007年以来有记录的物资投入数据进行梳理统计，采用数值拟合方法构建震后物资需求模型，计算震例模型值、标准值，并对实际值与模型值及实际值与标准值偏离程度进行对比分析，提出模型应用注意事项。Abstract: According to the national standard of the people’s Republic of China, Classification and Coding of Emergency Materials (GB/T 38565—2020), we sorted out the types of emergency rescue and people’s livelihood protection materials needed after the earthquake, and formulated the minimum requirements standard of basic people’s livelihood supplies for earthquake emergency rescue with reference to the experience of earthquake emergency disposal and the research results of relevant experts and scholars. Based on the data of material input recorded since 2007, we constructed the material demand model by using numerical fitting method. The model requirements and standard requirements of the earthquake cases are calculated. The deviation of the model requirements from the actual requirements, and the deviation of the standard requirements from the actual requirements are compared. Some points for attention and consideration in the application of the model are put forward. The requirement model can provide references for the decision-making of emergency rescue materials allocation for earthquake emergency and rescue. are compared. Some points for attention and consideration in the application of the model are put forward. The requirement model can provide references for the decision-making of emergency rescue materials allocation for earthquake emergency and rescue.
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Key words:
- Earthquake /
- People’s livelihood materials /
- Requirements /
- Numerical fitting /
- Model research
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图 1 地震应急救援物资统计频次图
Figure 1. A histogram of frequencies of kinds of relief supplies allocated to disaster areas in Yunnan
图 2 物资需求数量-灾情要素拟合曲线图
Figure 2. Fitted curves showing the relation between the requirements and the parameters of earthquake disasters
图 3 物资实际值-模型偏离值柱状图
Figure 3. The deviation of the model requirements from the actual requirements
图 4 物资实际值-标准偏离值柱状图
Figure 4. Deviation of the standard requirements from the actual requirements
表 1 地震应急救援民生保障物资种类表
Table 1. Classification of the supplies for earthquake emergency and rescue
大类 中类 小类 物资名称 基本生活保障物资 粮食 大米 大米 食用油 食用油 食用油 加工食品 方便食品 方便面、饼干、面包糕点、其他食品 饮料 饮料、矿泉水、瓶装水 纺织产品 服装类 衣服 床上用织物制品 被子、睡袋、床垫、床上用品、棉垫、毛巾被、毛毯 救灾帐篷 救灾帐篷 帐篷 其他材质帐篷 活动板房、遮阳篷 日用品 简易床 折叠床 雨具 雨衣、彩条布、油毛毡 桌椅 折叠桌凳 简易厕所 简易厕所 移动厕所 应急装备及配套物资 医疗及防疫设备及常用应急药品 常用应急药品 药品、应急包 应急照明设备及用品 手持式照明设备 应急灯、电筒、蜡烛 
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表 2 地震应急救援基本民生保障物资最低需求标准
Table 2. Minimal requirements for relief supplies for earthquake emergency and rescue
物资名称 所需数量 物资类别 马斯洛需求 清洁饮水 2 kg/人/d 粮油食品 水 大米（面） 1 kg/人/d 粮油食品 食物 食用油 0.2 kg/人/d 粮油食品 食物 蔬菜 2 kg/人/d 粮油食品 食物 肉蛋类 0.5 kg/人/d 粮油食品 食物 衣服 1套/人 衣物住宿 睡眠/生理平衡 鞋子 1双/人 衣物住宿 生理平衡 被子 1套/人 衣物住宿 睡眠/生理平衡 帐篷 0.25顶/人 衣物住宿 睡眠/生理平衡 移动厕所 0.02个/人 衣物住宿 分泌
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表 3 地震灾情要素和救灾投入数据
Table 3. Parameters of earthquake disasters in Yunnan and related relief input
日期 地震名称 灾情要素 救灾投入 震级 人员
受伤/人失去住所
人数/人灾区面积/
km2受灾人口/
人严重以上房屋
破坏面积/m2大米
（面）/t食用
油/桶衣服/
套被子/
床帐篷/
顶彩条
布/件折叠
床/张床上
用品/套2007-06-03 宁洱6.4级 6.4 419 61780 3890 403128 1511397 1990.30 72777 132000 67036 75383 9960 — — 2008-08-21 盈江5.9级 5.9 51 99480 4511 355395 1067183 — — — 22800 13090 — — — 2009-07-09 姚安6.0级 6.0 372 149990 6958 214339 849580 — — 7000 22580 10220 2500 — — 2009-11-02 宾川5.0级 5.0 31 17677 945 110736 109501 — — 3000 2000 1500 500 — — 2010-02-25 禄丰—元谋5.1级 5.1 35 31687 1563 164521 132440 — — 2 000 4000 2 000 — — — 2011-03-10 盈江5.8级 5.8 314 123729 4190 353435 1350555 94.63 10915 1603 6850 8999 649 — — 2011-06-20 腾冲5.2级 5.2 6 9419 1165 162720 52192 — — 200 400 405 — — — 2011-08-09 腾冲5.2级 5.2 6 6026 1361 184612 61005 — — — 600 488 — — — 2012-06-24 宁蒗—盐源5.7级 5.7 394 21325 1365 60286 202123 — — 5000 5000 4000 1300 — — 2012-09-07 彝良5.7级 5.7 832 176800 3118 715713 1624163 — — 13054 13000 13730 4828 5000 4700 2013-03-03 洱源5.5级 5.5 30 22494 2081 141588 112372 20.00 450 12000 10370 3120 — — — 2013-04-17 洱源—漾濞5.0级 5.0 14 10681 2388 167468 161919 — — 2400 1200 4200 — — — 2013-08-31 香格里拉—
得荣5.9级5.9 49 19988 6071 114051 76476 — — 10000 10000 7429 1500 7260 7000 2014-04-05 永善5.3级 5.3 32 18237 490 134285 39154 — — — — 1000 96 — — 2014-05-30 盈江6.1级 6.1 60 36589 3150 274419 186431 — — — 9000 5700 1750 5000 2000 2014-08-03 鲁甸6.5级 6.5 3143 287809 10350 1800507 4378081 — — 108797 94500 55113 12000 20000 10000 2014-08-17 永善5.0级 5.0 20 4234 350 113998 30404 23.10 300 9450 4220 10568 650 — — 2014-10-07 景谷6.6级 6.6 331 78394 11930 575633 396066 — — 21000 11000 17000 11300 10000 — 2014-12-06 景谷5.9级 5.9 22 16366 11930 575633 561172 — — — 5028 2838 600 — — 2015-03-01 沧源5.5级 5.5 50 17437 2130 150827 134878 40.80 — 404 7000 3100 2592 2000 — 2015-10-30 昌宁5.1级 5.1 0 4877 910 56773 16312 30.00 — 5500 1100 612 800 600 — 2016-05-18 云龙5.0级 5.0 2 3548 790 34590 5723 — — 6030 4400 355 500 2000 — 2017-03-27 漾濞5.1级 5.1 1 4920 810 47211 8887 1.16 80 1700 1500 500 430 1000 1000 2018-08-13 通海5.0级 5.0 31 11409 650 387158 51830 — — — 6000 2553 1200 3600 6600 2018-09-08 墨江5.9级 5.9 28 15731 5180 351643 142784 — — 2000 3000 2810 2950 2000 2000
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