祁连山-河西走廊西段强震复发概率模型及强震潜势评估

庞炜; 谢超; 李瑞莎; 张佩; 路珍

doi:10.11899/zzfy20210206

祁连山-河西走廊西段强震复发概率模型及强震潜势评估

doi: 10.11899/zzfy20210206

中国地震局第二监测中心，西安 710054

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目（41802229）；中国地震局星火科技项目（XH20080Y）

详细信息

作者简介:
庞炜，男，生于1989年。工程师。主要从事地震地质和工程地震等方面的研究。E-mail：pangwei89@126.com

通讯作者:
谢超，男，生于1983年。副研究员。主要从事地震地质等方面的研究。E-mail：chao.xie0017@163.com

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-08-19
- 刊出日期: 2021-06-30

Probability Model for Strong Earthquake Recurrence and Estimates of Seismic Potential in Western Qilian Mt.-Hexi Corridor

The Second Monitoring and Application Center, China Earthquake Administration, Xi’an 710054, China

摘要

摘要: 祁连山-河西走廊西段构造区发育多条重要活动断裂，多年来已积累较丰富的古地震研究的成果。本文在前人研究基础上，结合历史地震数据等，从定量化强震复发间隔T与平均复发间隔T_a入手，将其比值（T/T_a）进行数学处理，借鉴NB模型的思路，建立祁连山-河西走廊西段构造区模型，进而对强震潜势进行评估。结果表明：祁连山-河西走廊西段构造区内未来可能的强震发生地点是榆木山北缘断裂芦泉河-九个泉段和榆木山东缘断裂梨园河口-黑河口段。
- 祁连山-河西走廊西段 /
- 强震 /
- 概率分布 /
- T/T_a值
Abstract: Multiple important active faults are developed in western Qilian Mt.- Hexi Corridor, and quantitative research, especially systematic summary on paleoe-earthquakes are carried out in these years.This paper starts with paleoearthquakes and historic and recent earthquakes recurrence intervals for main active fault zones in western Qilian Mt.-Hexi Corridor since Late Pleistocene. By drawing lessons from modeling method of NB model, we have calculated the strong earthquake recurrence interval (T), average strong earthquake recurrence interval (T_a) and value of normalized function (T/T_a) for all specific fault segments, and established the strong earthquake recurrence probability model which shows that the distribution of normalized strong earthquake recurrence internal follows a normal distribution with mean (μ) equal to 1 and standard deviation (σ) of 0.224 3. The result reveals that the potential fault segments for the occurrence of future strong earthquake should be Luquanhe-Jiugequan segment of northern margin fault of Yumushan and Liyuanhe estuary-Heihe estuary part of eastern margin fault of Yumushan.
- Western Qilian Mt.-Hexi Corridor /
- Strong earthquake /
- Probability distribution /
- T/T_a value

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图 1 祁连山-河西走廊西段活动断裂分布图

Figure 1. Map showing distribution of active faults in western Qilian Mt.-Hexi Corridor

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图 2 均一化值（T/T_a）直方图

Figure 2. Histogram of standardized value (T/T_a) of the strong earthquake recurrence intervals

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图 3 榆木山北缘断裂及东缘断裂北段展布图

注：F1-2:榆木山北缘断裂芦河-九个泉段；F2-2:榆木山东缘断裂梨园河-黑河口段

Figure 3. Map of the distribution of northern Yumushan fault and north part of eastern Yumushan fault

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表 1 研究区主要断裂

Table 1. Introduction of main faults in the study area

断裂名称	产状	分段依据	分段
合黎山断裂	长度：65 km 走向：N50°～60°W 倾向：N 倾角：40°～70°	断层地貌断层走向	西段：肖家庄-阴埃墩中段：阴埃墩-红土沟东段：红土沟-猴儿头
金塔南山断裂	长度：60 km 走向：近EW 倾向：S 倾角：>60°	断层地貌几何形态	西段：梧桐墩-瓜勾山东中段：瓜勾山东-大口子山东段：大口子山-红墩西
旱峡-大黄沟断裂	长度：160 km 走向：NWW 倾向：SW 倾角：40°～70°	—	—
玉门-北大河断裂	长度：130 km 走向：NWW 倾向：SW 倾角：20°～40°	断层地貌活动性	西段：青草湾-南坪东段：南坪-佛洞庙
榆木山北缘断裂	长度：60 km 走向：NW 倾向：SW 倾角：40°～60°	断层地貌活动性	西段：元山子-芦泉河中段：芦泉河-九个泉东段：排路口至梨园小口子
榆木山东缘断裂	长度：110 km 走向：NNW 倾向：SWW 倾角：65°～70°	断层地貌活动性	①南丰-民乐 ②民乐-花寨子 ③花寨子-大苦水 ④大苦水-黑河口 ⑤黑河口-梨园河口 ⑥梨园河口-杨家庄
佛洞庙-红崖子断裂	长度：110 km 走向：NW 倾向：SW 倾角：30°～45°	几何形态地层切割关系	西段：洪水坝河-红山村中段：红山村东-马营河东段：马营河-西岔沟
龙首山南缘断裂	长度：400 km 走向：NW-NWW-EW 倾向：NE 倾角：70°～80°	—	—

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表 2 研究区主要历史地震

Table 2. Main historical earthquakes in the study area

时间	历史地震	宏观震中	震中烈度	发震断裂	地表破裂长度	最大同震位错	震级厘定
180年	表氏地震	高台县北（39.65°N，99.85°E）	IX～X	合黎山断裂	>65 km	3 m	$7\frac{1}{2}$
756年	张掖-酒泉地震	高台县北（39.6°N，100.0°E）	IX～X	合黎山断裂	>30 km （红土沟-猴儿头段）	1.5 m	7～$7\frac{1}{2}$
1609年	酒泉红崖堡地震	红崖堡西（39.2°N，99.0°E）	X	佛洞庙-红崖子断裂	95 km （洪水坝河-头到东湾）	1.8 m	$7\frac{1}{2}$
1785年	玉门惠回堡地震	玉门火烧沟近（39.9°N，97.9°E）	IX	新民堡断裂阴洼山断裂	—	—	$6\frac{3}{4}$
2002年	玉门地震	（39.7°N，97.2°E）	VII	旱峡-大黄沟断裂	—	—	5.9

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表 3 祁连山-河西走廊西段主要活动断裂(段落)强震复发间隔数据

Table 3. Strong earthquake recurrence intervals on some active faults in western Qilian Mt.-Hexi Corridor

断裂名称	段落名称	事件序列	时间/ a B.P.	距离上次事件时间间隔/a	重复间隔分组/a	平均重复间隔/a	均一化值
榆木山北缘断裂	芦泉河-九个泉	1	（13200±100）	—	—	—	—
		2	8 382±74	4 818	4 818	4 818	—
		3	6 511±65	1 871	1 871	—	0.97
		4	4 533±43	1 978	1 978	1 924	1.03
榆木山东缘断裂	梨园河口-黑河口	1	（25 000）	—	—	—	—
		2	（24 500）	—	—	—	—
		3	15 700	—	—	—	—
		4	13 150±150	2 550	2 550	—	0.95
		5	10 500	2 650	2 650	—	0.99
		6	8 750±250	1 750	1 750	—	0.65
		7	5 000	3 750	3 750	2 675	1.40
	临泽段	1	8 895±125	—	—	—	—
		2	6 718±39	2 177	2 177	—	1.01
		3	4 960±27	1 758	1 758	—	0.82
		4	2 438±40	2 522	2 522	2 152	1.17
佛洞庙-红崖子断裂	—	1	10 600	—	—	—	—
		2	7 100	3 500	3 500	—	1.03
		3	3 400	3 700	3 700	—	1.09
		4	410	3 000	3 000	3 400	0.88
金塔南山断裂	梧桐墩西-瓜勾山东	1	6470±1.93	—	—	—	—
		2	3 530±280	2 940	2 940	—	1.45
		3	1810±140	1 720	1 720	—	0.85
		4	410±200	1 400	1 400	2020	0.69
	瓜勾山东-红墩西	1	15 160±1290	—	—	—	—
		2	9 900±500	5 260	5 260	—	1.35
		3	6 000	3 900	3 900	—	1.00
		4	3 500±400	2 500	2 500	3 887	0.64
玉门-北大河断裂	—	1	8 330	—	—	—	—
		2	4 490	3 840	3 840	—	1.17
		3	1 790	2 700	2 700	3 270	0.82
		4	（1 140）	650	650	650	—
合黎山断裂	—	1	（5 000）	—	—	—	—
		2	（1 939）	3 061	—	—	—
		3	（1 263）	676	—	—	—
注：计算时剔除括号内的数据：（1）距今大于25 000a的地震数据，因其已超过地震复发周期；（2）单个地震的复发间隔值，无统计意义

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表 4 祁连山-河西走廊西段构造区活动断裂（段落）地震潜势定量评估表

Table 4. Quantitative estimates of seismic potential on some active faults in western Qilian Mt.-Hexi Corridor

断裂名称	段落名称	离逝时间/a B.P.	平均复发间隔/a	消失率*	累计概率/%
断裂名称	段落名称	离逝时间/a B.P.	平均复发间隔/a	消失率*	文中所建模型	BPT模型
榆木山北缘断裂	芦泉河-九个泉	4533	1 924	2.408	100.00	97.88
榆木山东缘断裂	梨园河口-黑河口	5000	2675	1.906	100.00	93.89
榆木山东缘断裂	临泽段	2438	2152	1.179	72.34	69.00
佛洞庙-红崖子断裂	—	410	3400	0.150	0	0
金塔南山断裂	梧桐墩西-瓜勾山东	410	2020	0.252	0	0
金塔南山断裂	瓜勾山东-红墩西	3500	3887	0.926	32.86	50.94
玉门-北大河断裂	—	1140	3270	0.379	0.18	2.10
注：*预测时段为100年

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