俯冲带板缘与板内地震长周期地震动参数预测模型研究

肖亮; 俞言祥

doi:10.11899/zzfy20210108

俯冲带板缘与板内地震长周期地震动参数预测模型研究

doi: 10.11899/zzfy20210108

肖亮,
俞言祥^,

中国地震局地球物理研究所，北京 100081

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划（2017YFC1500400）；中国地震局地球物理研究所基本科研业务费（DQJB21Z12、DQJB21Z10）共同资助

详细信息

作者简介:
肖亮，男，生于1984年。助理研究员。主要从事强地面运动衰减方面的研究。E-mail：Liangx@cea-igp.ac.cn

通讯作者:
俞言祥，男，生于1964年。研究员。主要从事工程地震学与强地面运动方面的研究。E-mail：yuyx@cea-igp.ac.cn

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-12-17
- 网络出版日期: 2021-07-12
- 刊出日期: 2021-03-01

Study on the Long-period Ground Motion Predicting Model for Interface and Intraslab Earthquakes in Subduction Zone

Xiao Liang,
Yu Yanxiang^,

Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China

摘要

摘要: 对海域地震区划中涉及的我国海域有影响的俯冲带地震动参数预测模型研究进展与阶段性成果进行介绍，基于资料、回归方法等，对地震动参数预测模型建立过程进行说明。依托可靠的强震加速度记录与宽频带速度记录，采用使结果更稳定的分步回归方法，考虑俯冲带深大地震断层尺度与震源深度影响选取新的预测模型。针对我国海域实际地震环境，新的预测模型重点关注了对俯冲带长周期地震动的估计。
- 海域 /
- 地震区划 /
- 地震动参数预测模型 /
- 反应谱 /
- 长周期
Abstract: The progress and periodical result for establishing ground motion predicting model for subduction earthquakes of China sea area is introduced. The developing procedures are briefly summarized through ground motion data, attenuation model and regression strategy. The study is based on reliable strong motion acceleration records and broad-band velocity data, using a more robust step-regression approach, and with a model considering both rupture scale and focal depth of subduction earthquakes. Special attention is fixed on the long-period spectral predicting base on the realistic earthquake situation for China sea area.
- Sea area /
- Seismic hazard map /
- Ground motion predicting model /
- Response spectral /
- Long-period

HTML全文

图 1 地震事件震中分布图

Figure 1. Map of earthquakes epicenter location

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图 2 板缘地震记录震级-断层距分布关系图

Figure 2. Distribution of magnitude-distance of interface earthquakes

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图 3 板内地震记录震级-断层距分布关系图

Figure 3. Distribution of magnitude-distance of intraslab earthquakes

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图 4 基岩水平向加速度反应谱曲线

Figure 4. Spectral acceleration curves for horizontal rock ground motion

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图 5 周期6.0 s反应谱值衰减曲线

Figure 5. Attenuation curves for spectrum of period 6.0 s

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图 6 回归残差随震级的变化关系图

Figure 6. Comparison of residuals in relation with magnitude

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图 7 回归残差随断层距的变化关系图

Figure 7. Comparison of residuals in relation with distance

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图 8 基岩水平向加速度反应谱曲线对比结果

Figure 8. Comparison of spectral acceleration curves for horizontal rock ground motion

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表 1 强震资料地震目录（板缘地震）

Table 1. Catalog of strong earthquakes records (Interface earthquakes)

发震时刻	震中纬度N/°	震中经度E/°	M_s/级	震源深度/km
2000-10-03T04:13:30.490	40.282	143.124	5.7	33
2001-08-13T20:11:23.400	41.046	142.308	6.3	38
2001-10-02T08:19:49.460	37.739	141.775	5.2	43
2002-11-03T03:37:42.070	38.886	141.977	6.1	39
2003-09-25T19:50:06.360	41.815	143.910	8.1	27
2003-09-25T21:08:00.030	41.774	143.593	7.4	33
2003-09-29T02:36:53.140	42.450	144.380	6.3	25
2003-10-08T09:06:55.340	42.648	144.570	6.6	32
2003-12-29T01:30:54.700	42.423	144.613	5.9	33
2004-04-11T18:06:12.480	42.918	144.836	5.7	42
2004-09-01T02:49:28.610	36.959	141.607	5.1	35
2005-01-18T14:09:06.220	42.946	144.866	5.7	42
2005-03-11T18:47:36.690	43.085	144.674	5.0	54
2005-07-09T23:37:11.140	33.422	140.825	5.4	55
2005-08-16T02:46:28.400	38.276	142.039	6.8	36
2005-10-19T11:44:42.790	36.405	140.839	6.5	32
2005-12-02T13:13:09.520	38.089	142.122	6.3	29
2007-11-26T13:51:39.800	37.392	141.586	5.9	42
2008-05-07T16:45:18.700	36.164	141.526	6.8	27
2008-07-19T02:39:28.700	37.552	142.214	7.0	22
2008-09-11T00:20:50.920	41.892	143.754	7.0	25
2009-06-05T03:30:33.060	41.824	143.445	6.4	29
2010-03-14T08:08:03.960	37.745	141.590	6.5	32
2010-07-04T21:55:51.980	39.697	142.369	6.3	27
2011-03-09T02:45:20.330	38.435	142.842	7.3	32
2011-03-11T05:46:24.120	38.297	142.373	9.0	29
2011-03-11T06:15:40.280	36.281	141.111	6.8	43
2011-03-25T11:36:24.490	38.772	141.880	6.2	39
2011-04-07T14:32:43.290	38.276	141.588	7.1	42
2011-04-21T13:37:03.340	35.579	140.305	6.2	43
2011-07-10T00:57:10.800	38.034	143.264	7.0	23
2011-07-23T04:34:24.180	38.898	141.815	6.4	41
2011-07-24T18:51:25.070	37.730	141.390	6.3	40
2011-07-30T18:53:50.720	36.942	140.955	6.5	38
2011-08-19T05:36:33.040	37.671	141.652	6.3	47
2011-09-16T19:26:40.260	40.273	142.779	6.7	30
2011-09-16T19:26:40.260	40.273	142.779	6.7	30
2011-11-24T10:25:34.030	41.898	142.639	6.2	38
2012-06-17T20:32:20.590	38.919	141.831	6.4	36
2012-12-07T08:18:23.130	37.890	143.949	7.3	31
2015-02-16T23:06:28.270	39.8558	142.8808	6.7	23
2015-05-12T21:12:58.890	38.9056	142.0317	6.8	35
2016-01-14T03:25:33.640	41.9723	142.7810	6.7	46
2018-01-24T10:51:19.090	41.1034	142.4323	6.3	31
2018-09-05T18:07:59.150	42.6861	141.9294	6.6	35

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表 2 宽频带资料地震目录（板缘地震）

Table 2. Catalog of broad-band records (Interface earthquakes)

发震时刻	震中纬度N/°	震中经度E/°	M_s/级	震源深度/km
2000-06-10T18:23:29.320	23.843	121.225	6.2	33
2000-07-04T22:19:44.160	20.240	122.163	5.2	33
2000-07-16T03:21:45.530	20.253	122.043	6.3	33
2000-09-10T08:54:45.960	24.008	121.526	5.6	35
2000-10-03T04:13:30.490	40.282	143.124	5.7	33
2001-06-14T02:35:25.810	24.513	122.033	5.6	32
2001-08-13T20:11:23.400	41.046	142.308	6.3	38
2001-08-17T22:25:49.010	25.748	126.190	5.6	33
2002-03-26T03:45:48.700	23.346	124.090	6.6	33
2002-03-31T06:52:50.490	24.279	122.179	7.4	33
2002-05-13T19:57:22.900	19.132	121.238	5.3	33
2002-07-11T07:36:26.060	24.075	122.288	5.6	44
2002-11-03T03:37:42.070	38.886	141.977	6.1	39
2003-06-09T01:52:51.010	24.413	122.020	5.5	48
2003-06-10T08:40:30.830	23.520	121.628	5.7	45
2003-09-25T19:50:06.360	41.815	143.910	8.1	27
2003-09-25T21:08:00.030	41.774	143.593	7.4	33
2003-09-29T02:36:53.140	42.450	144.380	6.3	25
2003-10-08T09:06:55.340	42.648	144.570	6.6	32
2005-01-18T14:09:06.220	42.946	144.866	5.7	42
2005-08-16T02:46:28.400	38.276	142.039	6.8	36
2005-09-06T01:16:02.350	24.084	122.191	6.1	32
2005-10-19T11:44:42.790	36.405	140.839	6.5	32
2006-07-28T07:40:11.840	24.183	122.526	5.9	33
2007-01-25T10:59:17.650	22.564	121.926	6.0	36
2007-04-20T19:37:58.230	27.471	128.379	5.3	42
2007-09-06T17:51:26.190	24.340	122.219	6.2	53
2008-06-01T01:57:23.690	20.124	121.350	6.3	31
2008-07-08T07:42:10.730	27.532	128.334	6.0	43
2008-09-11T00:20:50.920	41.892	143.754	6.7	25
2009-06-05T03:30:33.060	41.824	143.445	6.4	29
2009-10-30T07:03:39.120	29.218	129.782	6.8	34
2009-12-19T13:02:15.570	23.796	121.605	6.4	43
2010-03-14T08:08:03.960	37.745	141.590	6.5	32
2010-07-04T21:55:51.980	39.697	142.369	6.3	27
2010-10-04T13:28:38.860	24.270	125.154	6.3	32
2011-03-09T02:45:20.330	38.435	142.842	7.3	32
2011-03-11T05:46:24.120	38.297	142.373	9.0	29
2011-03-11T06:15:40.280	36.281	141.111	6.8	43
2011-03-11T15:13:14.680	35.994	141.808	6.3	21
2011-03-25T11:36:24.490	38.772	141.880	6.2	39
2011-04-07T14:32:43.290	38.276	141.588	7.1	42
2011-04-21T13:37:03.340	35.579	140.305	6.2	43
2011-07-10T00:57:10.800	38.034	143.264	7.0	23
2011-07-23T04:34:24.180	38.898	141.815	6.4	41
2011-07-24T18:51:25.070	37.730	141.390	6.3	40
2011-07-30T18:53:50.720	36.942	140.955	6.5	38
2011-08-19T05:36:33.040	37.671	141.652	6.2	47
2011-09-16T19:26:40.260	40.273	142.779	6.7	30
2011-09-16T19:26:40.260	40.273	142.779	6.7	30
2011-11-24T10:25:34.030	41.898	142.639	6.2	38
2012-06-09T21:00:18.070	24.572	122.248	5.9	70
2012-06-17T20:32:20.590	38.919	141.831	6.4	36
2012-12-07T08:18:23.130	37.890	143.949	7.3	31
2013-06-07T16:38:02.900	24.098	122.671	5.8	33
2013-10-25T17:10:19.710	37.1557	144.6611	7.1	35
2014-10-22T00:15:17.440	27.4158	128.5533	5.8	43
2015-02-13T20:06:32.330	22.6374	121.4270	6.2	30
2015-02-16T23:06:28.270	39.8558	142.8808	6.7	23
2015-05-12T21:12:58.890	38.9056	142.0317	6.8	35
2016-01-14T03:25:33.640	41.9723	142.7810	7.0	46
2016-12-26T01:23:37.880	19.1524	121.1743	5.2	34
2018-01-24T10:51:19.090	41.1034	142.4323	6.3	31
2018-09-05T18:07:59.150	42.6861	141.9294	6.6	35
2018-10-23T04:34:58.630	24.1153	122.6027	5.8	30
2018-10-23T16:04:04.240	23.9912	122.6791	5.7	31
2018-11-05T14:46:58.690	29.2376	130.5301	5.0	36

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 强震资料地震目录（板内地震）

Table 3. Catalog of strong earthquakes records (Intraslab earthquakes)

发震时刻	震中纬度N/°	震中经度E/°	M_s/级	震源深度/km
2000-06-03T08:54:49.200	35.552	140.464	5.6	62
2001-12-02T13:01:53.670	39.402	141.089	6.5	124
2002-04-03T23:42:12.810	41.543	141.851	5.3	71
2002-10-14T14:12:43.750	41.174	142.249	5.9	61
2003-05-26T09:24:33.400	38.849	141.568	6.9	68
2003-09-20T03:54:50.780	34.998	140.172	5.3	52
2007-04-18T15:07:31.600	42.658	141.861	5.0	120
2007-07-01T04:12:07.750	43.663	144.734	5.8	130
2008-07-23T15:26:19.950	39.802	141.464	6.8	108
2008-09-22T07:31:59.170	41.578	140.450	5.2	149
2009-02-28T00:35:56.700	42.610	142.104	5.0	105
2009-08-12T22:48:51.420	32.821	140.395	6.6	53
2010-03-13T12:46:26.380	37.594	141.299	5.2	77
2013-02-02T14:17:35.130	42.770	143.092	6.9	107
2013-11-03T05:25:15.340	35.9713	140.1213	5.1	77
2014-06-14T17:31:41.560	39.4384	140.9876	5.0	92
2015-07-09T18:32:51.220	40.3631	141.4646	5.0	81
2019-04-27T17:24:45.654	42.4547	142.8191	5.4	111

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表 4 测震资料地震目录（板内地震）

Table 4. Catalog of broad-band records (Intraslab earthquakes)

发震时刻	震中纬度N/°	震中经度E/°	M_s/级	震源深度/km
2000-01-28T16:39:24.280	26.076	124.496	5.8	194
2000-06-03T08:54:49.200	35.552	140.464	5.6	62
2001-12-02T13:01:53.670	39.402	141.089	6.5	124
2003-05-26T09:24:33.400	38.849	141.568	6.9	68
2004-10-15T04:08:50.240	24.530	122.694	6.7	94
2005-10-15T15:51:08.130	25.309	123.351	6.4	192
2008-07-23T15:26:19.950	39.802	141.464	6.8	108
2008-09-09T07:43:13.320	24.666	122.570	5.0	102
2009-03-26T19:19:59.560	27.415	126.702	5.9	160
2009-08-12T22:48:51.420	32.821	140.395	6.6	53
2010-01-15T11:08:38.370	26.746	126.285	5.7	139
2011-11-08T02:59:08.510	27.324	125.621	6.9	225
2013-02-02T14:17:35.130	42.770	143.092	6.9	107
2013-09-06T11:33:53.520	20.1721	122.3193	6.0	175
2014-03-02T20:11:23.430	27.4312	127.3674	6.5	119
2014-12-10T21:03:39.260	25.5403	122.4503	6.1	256
2014-12-31T07:54:36.890	24.6707	122.5575	5.2	104
2016-03-14T07:03:17.710	29.8888	128.9567	5.5	211
2016-05-31T05:23:47.310	25.5615	122.5458	6.4	246
2017-04-30T01:57:22.160	21.2987	121.8285	5.2	106
2017-08-16T12:51:25.870	28.6737	127.9007	5.7	198
2019-02-17T20:36:56.890	20.6674	122.1168	5.0	169

下载: 导出CSV

表 5 板缘地震基岩水平向加速度反应谱预测模型相关参数

Table 5. Coefficients of horizontal rock spectral acceleration prediction model for interface earthquakes

周期/s	A₁	B₁	A₂	B₂	C	D	E	σ
0.01	1.812	0.555	2.339	0.474	1.935	0.956	0.462	0.377
0.04	1.746	0.573	2.445	0.465	1.929	0.956	0.462	0.378
0.05	1.960	0.581	2.856	0.443	1.990	0.956	0.462	0.376
0.07	2.342	0.559	3.277	0.416	2.018	0.956	0.462	0.381
0.10	2.432	0.562	3.303	0.428	2.044	0.956	0.462	0.374
0.12	2.455	0.558	3.232	0.438	2.045	0.956	0.462	0.365
0.16	2.569	0.526	2.871	0.480	2.025	0.956	0.462	0.358
0.20	2.549	0.508	2.596	0.501	1.993	0.956	0.462	0.353
0.24	2.412	0.510	2.480	0.500	1.946	0.956	0.462	0.339
0.26	2.361	0.497	2.307	0.505	1.897	0.956	0.462	0.334
0.30	2.316	0.495	2.134	0.523	1.897	0.956	0.462	0.329
0.34	1.980	0.515	1.966	0.518	1.817	0.956	0.462	0.326
0.40	1.684	0.539	1.735	0.532	1.781	0.956	0.462	0.325
0.50	1.344	0.571	1.535	0.542	1.757	0.956	0.462	0.325
0.60	1.105	0.588	1.206	0.572	1.738	0.956	0.462	0.342
0.80	0.592	0.643	0.878	0.600	1.731	0.956	0.462	0.348
1.00	−0.036	0.719	0.537	0.630	1.730	0.956	0.462	0.335
1.20	−0.325	0.744	0.182	0.666	1.734	0.956	0.462	0.334
1.50	−0.850	0.809	0.027	0.674	1.730	0.956	0.462	0.325
1.70	−1.000	0.819	−0.107	0.682	1.720	0.956	0.462	0.324
2.00	−1.410	0.860	−0.419	0.708	1.700	0.956	0.462	0.320
2.40	−1.610	0.860	−0.904	0.752	1.672	0.956	0.462	0.319
3.00	−1.891	0.873	−1.328	0.786	1.639	0.956	0.462	0.317
4.00	−2.091	0.858	−1.994	0.845	1.605	0.956	0.462	0.316
5.00	−2.484	0.885	−2.484	0.885	1.573	0.956	0.462	0.295
6.00	−2.903	0.917	−2.903	0.917	1.537	0.956	0.462	0.304
7.00	−3.273	0.945	−3.273	0.945	1.502	0.956	0.462	0.312
8.00	−3.546	0.963	−3.546	0.963	1.463	0.956	0.462	0.311
9.00	−3.800	0.977	−3.800	0.977	1.425	0.956	0.462	0.319
10.00	−4.099	1.000	−4.099	1.000	1.389	0.956	0.462	0.328

下载: 导出CSV

表 6 板内地震基岩水平向加速度反应谱预测模型的参数

Table 6. Coefficients of horizontal rock spectral acceleration prediction model for intraslab earthquakes

周期/s	A₁	B₁	A₂	B₂	C	D	E	F	σ
0.01	3.541	0.516	3.639	0.501	2.442	0.956	0.462	0.008	0.377
0.04	3.652	0.506	3.678	0.502	2.440	0.956	0.462	0.008	0.377
0.05	3.679	0.525	3.881	0.494	2.471	0.956	0.462	0.008	0.378
0.07	3.825	0.528	4.094	0.486	2.488	0.956	0.462	0.008	0.376
0.10	3.927	0.537	4.220	0.491	2.507	0.956	0.462	0.008	0.381
0.12	4.005	0.529	4.249	0.491	2.517	0.956	0.462	0.008	0.374
0.16	3.834	0.549	3.898	0.540	2.516	0.956	0.462	0.008	0.365
0.20	3.678	0.562	3.707	0.558	2.506	0.956	0.462	0.008	0.358
0.24	3.514	0.574	3.546	0.569	2.483	0.956	0.462	0.008	0.353
0.26	3.447	0.567	3.460	0.566	2.451	0.956	0.462	0.008	0.339
0.30	3.299	0.573	3.341	0.567	2.415	0.956	0.462	0.008	0.334
0.34	3.334	0.565	3.341	0.563	2.426	0.956	0.462	0.007	0.329
0.40	3.236	0.571	3.347	0.553	2.431	0.956	0.462	0.006	0.326
0.50	3.262	0.563	3.388	0.544	2.462	0.956	0.462	0.004	0.325
0.60	3.122	0.574	3.126	0.573	2.476	0.956	0.462	0.004	0.325
0.80	2.778	0.637	3.348	0.549	2.560	0.956	0.462	0.004	0.342
1.00	2.431	0.667	3.170	0.553	2.550	0.956	0.462	0.004	0.348
1.20	2.298	0.671	3.063	0.553	2.547	0.956	0.462	0.004	0.335
1.50	2.105	0.671	2.792	0.564	2.524	0.956	0.462	0.004	0.334
1.70	1.682	0.718	2.705	0.561	2.501	0.956	0.462	0.004	0.325
2.00	1.384	0.743	2.561	0.562	2.480	0.956	0.462	0.004	0.324
2.40	1.174	0.741	2.130	0.594	2.451	0.956	0.462	0.004	0.320
3.00	0.459	0.746	1.353	0.609	2.217	0.956	0.462	0.004	0.319
4.00	0.219	0.675	0.219	0.675	2.039	0.956	0.462	0.004	0.317
5.00	−0.159	0.693	−0.159	0.693	2.005	0.956	0.462	0.004	0.316
6.00	−0.727	0.740	−0.727	0.740	1.973	0.956	0.462	0.004	0.295
7.00	−0.941	0.742	−0.941	0.742	1.937	0.956	0.462	0.004	0.304
8.00	−1.129	0.729	−1.129	0.729	1.863	0.956	0.462	0.004	0.312
9.00	−1.319	0.738	−1.319	0.738	1.863	0.956	0.462	0.004	0.311
10.00	−1.512	0.741	−1.512	0.741	1.825	0.956	0.462	0.004	0.319

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参考文献(11)

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