Analysis of the Jingle Well Water-level Anomaly Based on Numerical Simulation and Aquifer Stress Inversion
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摘要: 利用数值模拟与含水层垂向应力反演的方法，对降雨与河流荷载作用下静乐井区应力进行定量计算，并从区域应力场与同一构造区其他前兆测项变化特征对2种方法计算结果进行分析。数值模拟结果显示，降雨与河流荷载的共同作用使静乐井所在区域产生的最大垂向位移约为0.7mm，最大垂向应力约为30hPa；同时段静乐井-含水层垂向应力反演结果显示静乐井-含水层最大垂向应力约为79hPa；数值模拟与静乐井-含水层垂向应力反演结果均表明，静乐井水位高值异常与同时段降雨量增多、河流荷载效应增强关系密切，但2种结果存在一定差异。通过可反映井区应力场变化特征的山西地震带3级地震缺震和b值、穿过静乐井的GPS基线、地震矩释放、同一构造单元同时段其他前兆测项与静乐井水位高值异常对比等分析结果可知，2017年静乐井水位高值异常期间井区应力场存在显著异常，推测静乐井水位高值异常除受降雨与河流荷载作用的影响外，也可能受构造活动增强的影响。Abstract: Using the methods of numerical simulation and aquifer stress inversion, we calculate the stress values in Jingle well area under rainfall and river load. The calculation results of the two methods are analyzed from the regional stress field and other precursor observation values in the same tectonic area. The numerical simulation results show that the maximum vertical displacement and the maximum vertical stress caused by the combined load of river and rainfall are about 0.7mm and 30 hPa. At the same time, the inversion results of the vertical stress of the interval well-aquifer show that the maximum vertical stress of Jingle well-aquifer is about 79 hPa. Both numerical simulation and vertical stress inversion results of well-aquifer show that the abnormal high water level of Jingle well is closely related to the increase of rainfall and the enhancement of river load effect in the same period, but there are certain differences between the two results. Through the comparative analysis of the magnitude 3 earthquake deficiency and earthquake b value in Shanxi seismic belt, GPS baseline passing through jingle well, earthquake moment release, other precursor observation values of the same structural unit and the anomaly of jingle well water level high value, which can reflect the variation characteristics of the well stress field, it is found that there are significant anomalies in the well stress field during the anomaly of jingle well water level high value in 2017. It is speculated that the anomaly of jingle well water level high value not only is influenced by river and rainfall load, but also contains the factors of structural activity enhancement.
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图 2 静乐井水位与降雨量和东碾河流量的对比
Figure 2. Comparison of Jingle well level with rainfall and Dongnian river discharge
图 3 单降雨荷载作用下静乐井垂向位移和垂向应力
Figure 3. Vertical displacement and vertical stress of Jingle well under single rainfall load
图 4 单河流荷载作用下静乐井垂向位移和垂向应力
Figure 4. Vertical displacement and vertical stress of Jingle well under single river load
图 5 河流与降雨荷载共同作用下静乐井垂向位移和垂向应力
Figure 5. Vertical displacement and vertical stress of Jingle well under combined action of river and rainfall loads
图 6 东碾河流量、静乐井-含水层垂向应力与降雨量的对比
Figure 6. Flow rate of Dongnian river, vertical stress of Jingle well-aquifer and rainfall comparison chart
图 7 静乐井水位月均值与山西地震带3级地震缺震和b值的对比
Figure 7. Comparison chart of monthly average water level of jingle well with magnitude 3 earthquake deficiency and b value in Shanxi seismic belt
图 8 山西岢岚-山西太原GPS基线时序曲线
Figure 8. GPS baseline timing curve of Kelan, Shanxi-Taiyuan, Shanxi
图 9 静乐井所在区域地震矩加速释放时空图
Figure 9. Accelerated release diagram of seismic moment in jingle well area
图 10 静乐井水位与同一构造区其它前兆测项对比图
Figure 10. Comparison between Jingle well water level and other precursor measurements in the same structure area
表 1 静乐井-含水层多种参数计算结果
Table 1. Calculation results of various parameters of Jingle well-aquifer
时间 气压系数/（mm·hPa−1） 潮汐效率/（mm·10−9） 体积压缩系数/pa−1 孔隙度/% 固体体积压缩系数/pa−1 水位变化量/m 含水层垂向应力/hPa 2016-01 4.618 0.191 69.285 1.806 5.117 0.013 1.4019 2016-02 2.522 0.330 9.766 2.442 0.751 0.007 0.5703 2016-03 3.267 0.308 167.63 1.008 6.112 −0.004 −0.8453 2016-04 5.997 0.180 960.22 0.434 18.121 −0.014 −5.9814 2016-05 4.328 0.342 530.25 0.516 10.970 0.005 1.8874 2016-06 5.032 0.264 4926.8 0.053 10.884 −0.0009 −3.2224 2016-07 5.742 0.316 221.25 0.657 6.260 −0.003 −0.8655 2016-08 9.897 0.238 592.66 0.203 5.651 −0.017 −15.5497 2016-09 3.960 0.167 170.08 1.215 8.059 −0.006 −0.9238 2016-10 4.642 0.148 90.599 1.785 6.621 −0.007 −0.8333 2016-11 2.459 0.269 162.6 1.366 6.875 0.002 0.2584 2016-12 3.767 0.147 1709.5 0.106 6.9188 0.008 14.8921 2017-01 4.007 0.154 123.43 1.52 7.348 0.007 0.8916 2017-02 2.861 0.214 254.43 1.089 9.405 0.001 0.1522 2017-03 2.784 0.227 1454.1 0.071 3.449 0.001 1.3134 2017-04 3.808 0.292 148.14 0.997 5.684 −0.007 −1.3365 2017-05 6.093 0.206 600.47 0.494 12.952 0.011 4.2036 2017-06 4.756 0.285 84.983 1.233 4.318 0.005 0.8134 2017-07 6.225 0.249 114.4 1.032 5.173 −0.004 −0.7851 2017-08 18.400 0.191 4233.5 0.018 36.619 −0.03 −323.3068 2017-09 15.148 0.164 751.41 0.388 14.207 −0.015 −7.5280 2017-10 6.703 0.269 3324.2 0.055 8.1277 −0.012 −42.1179 2017-11 3.473 0.161 813.31 0.676 20.424 0.010 2.9897 2017-12 — 0.246 — — — — — 
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