Analysis of Anomalous Characteristics of Jinghe Water Tube Tilt and Extensometer Temperature before the Jinghe MS 6.6 Earthquake
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摘要: 2017年8月9日精河发生6.6级地震。本文首先利用相关、回归分析研究了气温对水管仪、伸缩仪的影响，并进行了干扰的定量剔除；其次，通过回归残差分析研究地震前水管仪、伸缩仪的异常特征，认为精河6.6级地震前存在3项异常：①2016年5月22日起，水管仪NS分量S倾幅度0.53"；②2017年3月24日起，EW分量E倾幅度0.28"；③2016年9月10日起，伸缩仪NS分量出现压缩现象。Abstract: The MS 6.6 earthquake occurred on August 9, 2017 in Jinghe. In order to investigate the anomaly characteristics from water tube tiltmeter and extensometer in Jinghe station, we analyzed the effects of air temperature on water tube tiltmeter and extensometer in Jinghe by using the correlation and regression analysis then rejected the interference of air temperature quantitatively. The analysis of regression residuals shows that there existed three abnormalities before the earthquake: ① S tilt amplitude 0.53" in NS component from water tube tiltmeter since May 22, 2016; ② EW component tilt amplitude 0.28" from March 24, 2017; ③From September 10, 2016, the NS component of the telescopic instrument appears to be compressed.
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Key words:
- Correlation coefficient /
- Air temperature /
- Regression analysis /
- Water tube tiltmeter /
- Extensometer
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图 1 精河地震台与精河6.6级地震分布
Figure 1. Location of Jinghe seismic station and the MS 6.6 earthquake
图 2 精河水管仪、伸缩仪、气温日均值曲线图
（a）水管仪NS向；（b）水管仪EW向；（c）伸缩仪NS向；（d）伸缩仪EW向；（e）气温
Figure 2. Daily average curves of tilt, extension and temperature from Jinghe station
图 3 精河水管仪EW向、伸缩仪NS向与最佳逼近多项式的拟合之差
（a）水管仪EW向；（b）伸缩仪NS向
Figure 3. The difference between the polynomial fitting of tilt in EW, extension in NS from Jinghe station
图 4 精河水管仪、伸缩仪各分量与气温的相关系数和滞后天数之间的关系
（a）水管仪NS向；（b）水管仪EW向；（c）伸缩仪NS向；（d）伸缩仪EW向
Figure 4. The relationship between the number of lags and the correlation coefficient of tube tiltmeter, extensometer components and the temperature from Jinghe station
图 5 精河水管仪、伸缩仪各分量与气温散点图
Figure 5. Scatter plot of water tube tiltmeter, extensometer components and temperature from Jinghe station
图 6 精河水管仪、伸缩仪各分量回归残差曲线
（a）水管仪NS向；（b）水管仪EW向；（c）伸缩仪NS向；（d）伸缩仪EW向
Figure 6. The regression residual curve of water tube tiltmeter and extensometer components in Jinghe station
图 7 精河6.6级地震构造应力场图（引自中国地震局地壳应力研究所）
Figure 7. Regional tectonic stress field of the Jinghe earthquake
表 1 精河水管仪、伸缩仪各分量和气温的相关系数与滞后天数
Table 1. Correlation coefficient of the measurements of Jinghe station
测项 水管仪NS 水管仪EW 水管仪EW去倾 伸缩仪NS 伸缩仪NS去倾 伸缩仪EW 相关系数 -0.6064926 0.286082 0.7645674 -0.7441875 -0.8625605 0.8993703 滞后天数 33 92 92 82 82 73 
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表 2 精河水管仪、伸缩仪与气温回归分析结果
Table 2. Results of regression analysis of water tube tiltmeter, extensometer components and temperature in Jinghe station
测项 回归方程 可决系数 拟合效果 原值 修正值 水管仪NS向 $ y = - 0.18801{x^2} - 3.45022x + 792.66731 + \varepsilon $ 0.434 0.4333 一般 水管仪EW向 $ y = 7.7023x - 63.2397 + \varepsilon $ 0.5846 0.5843 一般 伸缩仪NS向 $ y = - 335.723x + 2780.482 + \varepsilon $ 0.744 0.7439 较好 伸缩仪EW向 $ y = 14.65{x^2} + 652.7x - 12590 + \varepsilon $ 0.8513 0.8511 较好
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