Uncertainty in One Dimensional Site Response Analysis for Nuclear Facilities
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摘要: 本文概述了一维土层地震反应分析等效线性化方法评价结果不确定性研究的进展，比较了中美两国核设施土层地震反应分析中参数不确定性的处理方法。基于实测数据，令参数随机变化，建立土层剖面模型，采用随机振动理论方法，分析了土层动力特性、剪切波速、基岩地震动输入界面对评价结果的影响。结果表明，土层剪切波速的不确定性对评价结果影响最大，主要表现为加速度反应谱平台段的延长。对比参数随机变化模型和最佳估计模型的计算结果可知，随机振动理论反映了土层对基岩地震动的影响，将随机模型分析结果的中值加减1倍标准差基本可以包络最佳估计模型的分析结果。Abstract: After reviewing the recent research development of uncertainty in one dimensional site response analysis for nuclear facility, we compared the procedures to deal with uncertainty of input parameters by China and United States. We generated soil profile models by randomizing measured data, and analyzed site response per random vibration theory. The calculated results show that the most dominate parameter is the velocity of shear wave which extended the peak range of acceleration response spectra. Comparison between results of random models with the best estimated model demonstrates that random vibration theory could introduce the effect of soil on ground motion. The median plus one standard deviation and median minus one standard deviation response spectrum can approximately envelope the best estimated one.
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Key words:
- Site response /
- Random vibration /
- Nuclear safety /
- Uncertainty
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图 2 工程场地钻孔柱状图和剪切波速剖面图
Figure 2. Log columns and profiles of shear wave velocity of site
图 3 剪切模量-剪应变关系（a）和阻尼比-剪应变关系（b）
Figure 3. Plot of shear modulus vs. strain (a) and plot of damping ratio vs. strain (b)
图 4 固定参数模型条件下钻孔zk1的加速度传递函数（a）和土层地表加速度反应谱（b）
Figure 4. Acceleration transfer function (a) and soil surface acceleration spectra (b) of zk1
图 5 剪切波速随机变化条件下zk1的加速度传递函数（a）和地表加速度反应谱（b）
Figure 5. Acceleration transfer function (a) and soil surface acceleration spectrum (b) of zk1 through randomly variationon shear wave velocity
图 6 随机生成土层动力特性曲线条件下的加速度传递函数（a）和土层地表加速度反应谱（b）
Figure 6. Acceleration transfer function (a) and soil surface acceleration spectrum (b) of zk1 through randomly variation on soil dynamic character
图 7 基岩地震动输入界面深度随机变化条件下的加速度传递函数（a）和土层地表加速度反应谱（b）
Figure 7. Acceleration transfer function (a) and soil surface spectrum (b) of zk1 under randomly variation on depth of hard rock surface
图 8 土层剖面随机模型与固定参数模型加速度传递函数（a）和地表加速度反应谱对比图（b）
Figure 8. Acceleration transfer function (a) and soil surface acceleration spectrum (b) of zk1 through randomly variation on shear wave velocity, soil dynamic character and depth of hard rock surface
表 1 土层样品动力非线性特性
Table 1. The shear modulus and damping ratio vs. strain of soil samples
序号 土层名称 剪切模量比与阻尼比 剪应变γ/10-4 0.05 0.1 0.5 1 5 10 50 100 1 粉质粘土 G/Gmax 0.993 0.987 0.937 0.881 0.718 0.56 0.203 0.113 λ 0.004 0.007 0.028 0.045 0.06 0.098 0.204 0.236 2 粉土 G/Gmax 0.993 0.986 0.936 0.879 0.749 0.599 0.23 0.13 λ 0.004 0.007 0.023 0.033 0.068 0.11 0.22 0.251 3 粉质粘土 G/Gmax 0.996 0.992 0.96 0.924 0.661 0.493 0.163 0.089 λ 0.005 0.009 0.032 0.047 0.065 0.103 0.192 0.215 4 粉质粘土 G/Gmax 0.991 0.983 0.919 0.87 0.762 0.678 0.316 0.188 λ 0.005 0.009 0.032 0.047 0.055 0.091 0.193 0.224 5 粉质粘土 G/Gmax 0.99 0.98 0.905 0.827 0.702 0.601 0.232 0.131 λ 0.005 0.009 0.032 0.047 0.061 0.099 0.198 0.226 6 粉砂 G/Gmax 0.989 0.978 0.947 0.906 0.822 0.716 0.371 0.227 λ 0.005 0.009 0.032 0.037 0.054 0.083 0.186 0.282 7 粉砂 G/Gmax 0.991 0.982 0.936 0.892 0.802 0.704 0.336 0.202 λ 0.005 0.009 0.032 0.047 0.067 0.091 0.189 0.219 8 粉质粘土 G/Gmax 0.992 0.985 0.938 0.896 0.801 0.703 0.321 0.191 λ 0.005 0.009 0.032 0.044 0.063 0.085 0.172 0.208 9 粉质粘土 G/Gmax 0.992 0.984 0.923 0.884 0.703 0.611 0.239 0.136 λ 0.005 0.009 0.032 0.047 0.071 0.088 0.175 0.206 10 粉质粘土 G/Gmax 0.993 0.986 0.935 0.886 0.713 0.624 0.249 0.142 λ 0.002 0.005 0.022 0.038 0.075 0.093 0.198 0.242 11 粉质粘土 G/Gmax 0.99 0.98 0.907 0.862 0.712 0.607 0.236 0.134 λ 0.021 0.032 0.061 0.078 0.118 0.143 0.179 0.198 12 粉质粘土 G/Gmax 0.992 0.984 0.924 0.859 0.633 0.463 0.147 0.079 λ 0.019 0.03 0.046 0.058 0.092 0.112 0.169 0.184 13 粉质粘土 G/Gmax 0.996 0.991 0.958 0.919 0.813 0.685 0.303 0.179 λ 0.002 0.004 0.018 0.03 0.05 0.083 0.18 0.211 14 粉质粘土 G/Gmax 0.989 0.978 0.913 0.876 0.782 0.701 0.413 0.262 λ 0.017 0.025 0.041 0.044 0.053 0.066 0.128 0.189 15 粉砂 G/Gmax 0.992 0.984 0.925 0.861 0.664 0.497 0.165 0.09 λ 0.004 0.007 0.025 0.036 0.074 0.12 0.239 0.273 16 粉质粘土 G/Gmax 0.994 0.989 0.946 0.897 0.728 0.572 0.211 0.118 λ 0.005 0.009 0.03 0.041 0.062 0.086 0.189 0.228 17 粉质粘土 G/Gmax 0.993 0.986 0.943 0.905 0.834 0.763 0.439 0.281 λ 0.005 0.01 0.034 0.048 0.068 0.081 0.157 0.179 18 粉质粘土 G/Gmax 0.995 0.991 0.955 0.915 0.746 0.595 0.227 0.128 λ 0.002 0.004 0.018 0.031 0.056 0.094 0.203 0.238 19 粉细砂 G/Gmax 0.992 0.985 0.934 0.897 0.831 0.757 0.453 0.293 λ 0.001 0.003 0.012 0.018 0.035 0.05 0.104 0.12 
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